Tesla stock targets $367.50 as buyers defend key support
Tesla is trying to extend its recovery after the recent pullback, but today’s session brings several fresh catalysts into focus. Whether the rebound can hold will depend not only on buyer demand, but also on how the market reacts to key data.
403.82
408.36
Tesla is due to report third-quarter delivery results today. According to the company-compiled consensus, analysts expect 461,974 vehicles, including 450,712 Model 3 and Model Y units. By comparison, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, implying a decline of roughly 3.8% quarter-on-quarter. The average estimate for energy storage deployments stands at 15.9 GWh, up from 13.5 GWh in the previous quarter.
Another development is the postponement of the new Roadster presentation. Tesla moved the event from October 1 to October 15 because of adverse weather conditions.
Tesla recovery remains intact above the 50-day SMA
The recovery scenario outlined earlier has started to play out. Tesla tested the 50-day SMA and managed to hold above key support at $350, while the September 30 candle closed on relatively elevated trading volume.
That improves the short-term technical structure and keeps the rebound scenario intact. The nearest upside target is resistance around $367.50.
As long as the price remains above $350 and the 50-day SMA continues to act as support, this remains the base-case scenario.
The current setup would be invalidated by a break and sustained move below $350. In that case, the recovery would come under pressure and the risk of a decline toward $342.11, where the previously identified price gap is located, would rise sharply.
Jobs data could drive a volatile Tesla session
Volatility could increase sharply today around the U.S. labor-market report. The BLS is due to publish the September Employment Situation report on October 2. The previous release showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, so markets will be watching closely for signs that labor conditions are cooling further.
For Tesla, the reaction could be particularly sharp because the data feed directly into expectations for Federal Reserve policy and U.S. Treasury yields. A softer labor market could ease pressure on yields and support growth stocks, while stronger data could revive concerns about a more restrictive Fed stance.
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