US-Iran peace agreement pushes Brent crude down 3.51%

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Brent crude drops 3.51% to $77.79

Highlights

The U.S. Treasury granted Iran a 60-day waiver to export oil, sharply increasing anticipated global crude supply.
This policy move follows a U.S.-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, restoring vital export capacity.
Brent crude trades below key moving averages with momentum indicators skewed bearish; expected range over the next 2–3 days is $76.37 to $79.21.

US sanctions waiver spurs supply surge amid Iran trade resumption

The United States Treasury Department issued a 60-day sanctions waiver on June 22, 2026, allowing Iran to export crude oil and petroleum products, significantly increasing permitted supply to global markets, according to Finance Yahoo. This action was implemented following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, restoring a crucial maritime route for oil shipments. As noted by Indexbox, these developments are expected to result in additional Iranian oil entering international markets, leading market participants to reassess global supply outlooks.

Downward bias persists as momentum weakens and resistances cap gains

Technically, XBR is currently below the MA-20 at $77.84, MA-50 at $79.17, and the long-term MA-200 at $80.62. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $78.53, acting as immediate resistance, while support is defined by the next lower price levels. Momentum indicators show a strong sell on MACD and a sell bias on ADX, confirming prevailing weakness. RSI is at 48.58 (Sell), Stoch RSI is overbought, and CCI is neutral, highlighting mixed short-term signals, with oscillators diverging from momentum. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) points to active buyer presence, and Awesome Oscillator reads as neutral. Moderate volatility accompanied today's 3.51% drop and intraday rebound.

Downside favored as immediate resistance challenges bullish scenarios

Over the next 2–3 trading days, Brent crude is likely to trade within a typical volatility band between $76.37 and $79.21. The probability of an upward move is currently 43%, while downward scenarios are slightly more probable at 57%. Should price break above the immediate resistance at $78.53, a bullish move could develop; conversely, a breakdown below $76.37 would open further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the U.S. sanctions waiver for Iranian oil as a critical bearish driver for Brent crude. He notes that price is now trading below key moving averages, with technicals confirming ongoing weakness. Downside risks dominate as supply expectations grow and momentum signals remain negative. "Until Brent reclaims $78.53, I see rallies as corrective and expect pressure to persist."

Previously it was reported that easing geopolitical tensions and improved crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had applied downward pressure on oil prices. The current technical setup, combined with increased Iranian supply following recent U.S. sanctions relief, now signals that sustained closes below $76.37 could escalate downside risk for Brent crude in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.