-2.13% for Brent crude oil as crude shipments surge through Hormuz Strait

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Brent crude oil drops 2.13% today

Highlights

Brent crude prices reacted to Iran's attack and U.N. patrol suspension near the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying supply risk perceptions.
Contrary to initial fears, crude flows through the Hormuz Strait reached post-conflict highs, defusing immediate concerns over physical supply disruption.
Technical signals confirm bearish momentum with price pressured toward $71.16–$75.7, and strong selling dominance outweighing the oversold condition.

Supply fears fade as Hormuz crude flows reach post-conflict highs

Brent crude oil saw heightened geopolitical risk following Iran's attack on a cargo ship near Oman and the suspension of U.N. escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, initially stoking fears of significant supply disruptions. However, data from Fxstreet confirmed that crude flows through the Hormuz Strait have reached their highest post-conflict levels, signaling that physical supply interruptions have not materialized as anticipated and shifting market attention back toward broader supply dynamics. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority also issued warnings to ships operating outside designated routes, but these operational risks have been offset by the robust shipment data.

Bearish momentum dominates as XBR trades under multi-timeframe resistance

On the technical front, XBR is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart and remains under the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $74.57, marking immediate resistance to the upside. Among momentum indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in Sell mode while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains Neutral, suggesting active downward pressure without a dominant trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.24 and signals a Sell, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power both indicate oversold and seller dominance. The Stochastic RSI and ADX maintain neutral readings, and the Awesome Oscillator also aligns with a Sell bias.

Downside risk prevails as Brent eyes support in volatile range

In the short term, Brent is expected to trade within the $71.16 to $75.7 range over the next two to three sessions, in line with typical volatility bands relative to current levels. There is a 29% probability of an upward move, while the likelihood of a downward scenario remains higher. The base case anticipates continued consolidation within this corridor; should buyers break above $74.57, the price may challenge higher resistance, while a sustained move below support could see sellers push toward the lower boundary of the projected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees weak technicals and persistent selling pressure for Brent crude oil. He notes that despite initial supply fears, robust shipment data confirms diminished disruption risk. Analyst believes resistance at $74.57 will cap any short-term rallies and the overall tone remains defensive while Brent trades below key averages. "Until price stabilizes above $74.57, I remain cautious and expect sellers to control the range."

Earlier, analysts noted that supply recovery and accelerated tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz had shifted oil market focus away from geopolitical risks to broader supply dynamics. The current technical setup reinforces this narrative, with the prevailing downward momentum suggesting that traders should monitor for a potential sustained break below $71.16 as the next key risk.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.