Iran peace talks progress improves Strait of Hormuz shipping, lifting Copper higher

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Copper up 1.14% today on peace talks

Highlights

Copper prices rose as Iran and the US made progress in peace talks, which could restore Strait of Hormuz shipping and lower inflation risks.
Improved shipping conditions could reduce input costs and spur a rebound in manufacturing demand for industrial metals.
Technicals show copper maintains a short-term bullish bias but faces mixed signals, likely trading between $6.2354 and $6.4876 with a slightly higher probability of a downward move.

Peace talks progress drives optimism for manufacturing recovery

Copper prices are moving higher after Iran announced significant progress in peace talks with the US, which is expected to help restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce inflationary pressures, according to Bloomberg. Improved shipping conditions may lower input costs and support a recovery in manufacturing demand, a key consumer of industrial metals. Bloomberg also notes that recent geopolitical tensions had previously led to higher energy prices, threatening to suppress manufacturing activity and copper usage.

Mixed technical signals as sell momentum counters buyer strength

On the H4 chart, HG trades above its MA-20 but remains below the MA-50, with price clearly maintaining distance above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun is set at $6.3482 and acts as immediate support. MACD highlights strong sell momentum, while ADX shows a neutral trend. RSI hovers just over 51, reflecting mild buying, and both Stoch RSI and CCI remain in overbought territory, suggesting possible exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates buyers are dominating intraday, but the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Sideways trading likely as volatility persists within set range

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, price is expected to oscillate within the $6.2354 to $6.4876 range, a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a downside move stands at 57%, while the probability of an upside move is 43%. The baseline scenario calls for further sideways consolidation within this corridor; a clear break above resistance may lead to a bullish extension, while a drop below support could trigger a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees recent progress in Iran-US talks as a positive catalyst for copper demand, but remains cautious. He notes that while copper trades above some key moving averages, strong sell signals from MACD and overbought momentum indicators suggest limited upside. The base case is still for a sideways move between $6.2354 and $6.4876. "Until copper reclaims the $6.4876 resistance with conviction, I see little reason to chase further gains here."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting sustained strength above key moving averages, suggesting potential for continued sideways consolidation. With recent geopolitical developments easing supply risks and momentum signals remaining mixed, traders should monitor for volatility spikes outside the current $6.2354–$6.4876 band as the next directional trigger.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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