Silver declines as eased US-Iran tensions cap safe-haven demand

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Silver drops 4.95% to $61.88 today

Highlights

Silver ETF holdings have declined 9.2% year-to-date, signaling persistent outflows and suppressing physical demand.
Easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions are curbing safe-haven flows into precious metals, pressuring silver's appeal.
Technical signals confirm strong bearish momentum; XAG/USD is likely to trade between $59.94 and $63.82 with further downside risk.

ETF outflows compound as geopolitical easing dims safe-haven appeal

Silver has seen persistent ETF outflows, with year-to-date holdings down 9.2%, according to Fxstreet. This ongoing reduction in ETF investment acts as a direct drag on overall demand and has been a key driver weighing on the asset. Eased geopolitical tensions related to US-Iran peace developments, as reported by Fxstreet, further limited safe-haven flows into the precious metals sector.

Multiple indicators confirm downside momentum as key resistance holds

On the technical side, XAG/USD is trading below the MA-20 ($63.78), MA-50 ($64.82), and MA-200 ($76.46) on the hourly chart, with the Ichimoku Kijun line at $64.37 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators confirm strong selling pressure: RSI is deep in the Sell zone at 27.15, MACD and ADX both signal Sell, CCI is at Sell as well, while Stoch RSI and the Awesome Oscillator are neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates oversold conditions and dominant seller control intraday, and the price remains close to today's session low of $61.88. There are no notable divergences among the main oscillators.

Further downside likely as range narrows and breakout risks emerge

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the expected price range for XAG/USD is $59.94 to $63.82. Probability currently favors further downside, with a very high chance of continued weakness and a low likelihood of a rebound. The baseline scenario is for the price to move sideways within this range, while a bullish reversal would require a sharp move above $64.37 resistance. If the price breaks below $59.94, the bearish scenario may accelerate further.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Silver remains under heavy pressure as persistent ETF outflows reflect weak investor conviction. He sees easing geopolitical risks limiting safe-haven demand, while technical momentum is firmly bearish. The analyst maintains a cautiously constructive outlook, expecting the market to seek a bottom but needing a clear shift in sentiment to support any upside. "I am watching for signs of renewed inflows or geopolitical shifts to signal a more durable turnaround in Silver demand."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver faced a persistently bearish outlook due to reduced safe-haven demand and a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve. This latest session further reinforces that negative bias, as fresh ETF outflows and ongoing technical weakness highlight the risk of a decisive breakdown if the $59.94 support fails in the coming days.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.