Sugar price forecast: $14.55 resistance as SB trades flat

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Sugar gains 0.53% after India ban

Highlights

India's sugar export ban through at least September 2026 eliminates a key supplier, tightening global supply chains.
Ongoing diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production and weak harvests may extend India's export absence, heightening supply concerns.
Short- and medium-term technical momentum remains bullish for SB/USD, with price expected to consolidate in the $13.97–$14.19 range despite overbought signals.

Extended supply gap as India halts sugar exports for years

India's confirmed ban on sugar exports until at least the end of September 2026, as reported by Riotimesonline, immediately removes the world's number-two exporter from global supply chains and creates a prolonged supply gap in international markets. The move, driven by the need to divert cane to ethanol production and manage weaker harvests, is expected to constrain global sugar availability, placing upward pressure on prices. Seoul Economic Daily also highlights the role of India's reduced sugarcane output and increasing domestic ethanol demand as factors that may extend this export absence over several years.

Intraday buying persists as overbought signals test upside momentum

SB is trading above the $14.01 MA-20 and $13.95 MA-50 levels on the H1 chart, while long-term resistance remains at the $14.55 MA-200 daily. The Ichimoku Kijun at $13.95 provides immediate support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently generates a buy signal, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 60.34, which indicates a buy, but both the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastic RSI point to overbought conditions, raising the risk of near-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power shows buyers are dominant during intraday sessions, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to confirm upward momentum.

Upward bias likely as consolidation forms within support corridor

Within the next 2 to 3 trading days, SB is likely to consolidate inside a volatility band between $13.97 and $14.19, with a high probability for upward movement. The baseline scenario anticipates price action stabilizing within this corridor, using $13.95 as immediate support. A bullish breakout above $14.19 could open the way for additional gains, while a drop below the $13.95 support would signal a temporary reversal in momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the Indian export ban as a decisive macro driver for global sugar supply. He believes current price action is underpinned by persistent supply constraints and firm technical structure. Short-term indicators signal price strength, with momentum favoring further upside while overbought readings hint at possible pauses. Karapetjanc remains optimistic for sustained bullish momentum above immediate support. "India’s prolonged absence from the export market is a game-changer — I expect sugar prices to remain well supported as long as supply stays tight."

Earlier, analysts noted that global supply risks and India's export ban were maintaining downside pressure on sugar prices, while technical indicators signaled caution. The current session adds upward momentum and medium-term strength, suggesting that traders should monitor for a potential bullish breakout above $14.19 as the next move.

Source of Data: SB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.