Cardano price prediction: Sideways trend likely as ADA slips below support

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Cardano down 2.06% to $0.357 today

Highlights

Major Cardano decentralized exchanges—Minswap, SundaeSwap V2, and WingRiders—have experienced a significant uptick in on-chain activity and fee growth.
Large ADA holders accumulated around 100 million ADA (approximately $36 million), coinciding with decreasing selling pressure, according to recent on-chain data.
Cardano launched its privacy-focused partner chain Midnight (NIGHT), triggering significant liquidity events and ongoing development to improve cross-chain smart contract compatibility.

Large holder accumulation and ecosystem growth ease recent selling

Major decentralized exchanges within Cardano's ecosystem, including Minswap, SundaeSwap V2, and WingRiders, have recently seen a notable increase in on-chain activity and fee growth. Large ADA holders have accumulated approximately 100 million ADA, worth about $36 million, coinciding with a reduction in selling pressure based on on-chain data. Additional developments include the launch of Cardano's privacy-focused partner chain Midnight (NIGHT), which generated significant liquidity events, and ongoing work to enhance cross-chain compatibility for smart contracts.

Sustained negative momentum as downside dominates technical signals

Momentum remains decisively negative, as both MACD (–0.031) and ADX (39.0) confirm established downside force. Oversold readings show on the CCI (–95.3) and Stoch RSI is neutral (32.5), with multi-timeframe Stoch RSI and CCI both frequently indicating oversold conditions, while the RSI (36.7) stays weak but not extreme. BBP (–0.009) reinforces ongoing seller dominance in intraday momentum, and although the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, it does not contradict the prevailing trend. ADA opened with no gap, declining after the open and posting a daily loss of 2.06%. The current price is near today’s low and intraday volatility is moderate, reinforcing persistent pressure after the open and confirming negative momentum.

Sideways action likely as downside risk outweighs rebound prospects

For the coming five trading days, ADA is expected to fluctuate within the $0.320 to $0.370 range, consistent with recent volatility and adjusted to fit within 10% of the current price. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of further decline, while the likelihood of a rebound is very low. The baseline scenario envisions ADA moving sideways between support and resistance, while a bullish scenario would require a clear breakout above $0.370 – $0.416. A bearish scenario would be triggered by a confirmed drop through $0.320 – $0.325, exposing the market to further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Cardano’s current technical picture as firmly bearish in the short term, with price action locked beneath key averages and momentum indicators remaining negative. He notes, however, that strong on-chain activity on Cardano DEXs and recent large holder accumulation reflect a constructive sentiment foundation. Market volatility remains contained, and improvements in the ecosystem, such as Midnight’s launch, could gradually restore confidence. Karapetjanc believes that fundamental and sentiment factors create potential for mid-term recovery if technical resistance is cleared. "If ADA can build support above $0.370 and leverage continued ecosystem growth, I see a real path for bullish momentum to return."

Previously it was reported that Cardano (ADA) is trading below key moving averages, including the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, while technical signals such as MACD, ADX, and RSI indicate persistent bearish momentum with sellers maintaining control. Price action remains confined within a narrow range, with resistance near $0.416 and technical indicators suggesting continued downside risk and weak prospects for a near-term reversal.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.