Bitcoin price prediction: BTC rises as institutions position ahead of $23.7B options expiry

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Highlights

Bitcoin trades near $89,000 as institutions hedge ahead of $23.7B options expiry
Max pain sits at $96,000, where most bullish and bearish contracts expire worthless
BTC expiry below $96K could suppress upside momentum through post-expiry weekend sessions

This price movement is taking place ahead of a historic options expiry event, where roughly $23.7 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire today. When Ethereum and other crypto contracts are included, the total notional value reaches approximately $28 billion. This expiry is the largest in crypto history and introduces a significant liquidity shift in the market.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Dec 2025). Source: TradingView

Options are contracts that allow traders to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price before expiry. The massive size of today's expiry means that institutions and market makers are likely adjusting or hedging their positions to avoid excessive losses. The recent price surge in the Asian session strongly suggests institutional influence attempting to steer the price into favorable zones before the contracts settle.

BTC outlook now hinges on expiry settlement relative to the key $96,000 level

According to options data, call positions are heavily stacked around the $100,000 and $120,000 levels, while put contracts are concentrated around $85,000. The max pain level, where the most contracts expire worthless, stands at $96,000. A put-call ratio of 0.37 reflects that bullish contracts significantly outnumber bearish ones. This imbalance plays a key role in shaping market sentiment before and after the expiry.

Two scenarios are likely to follow. If Bitcoin closes below $96,000 by the end of today, a large portion of the bullish bets will expire worthless. This could reduce upside momentum as bullish traders retreat, leaving the price range suppressed or vulnerable to a retracement. On the other hand, if Bitcoin somehow rallies above $96,000 before the expiry, it would flip the situation in favour of bulls. In such a case, late buyers may attempt to enter quickly, potentially triggering a short squeeze or a mini rally.

Overall, Bitcoin's price action today is a direct reflection of institutional maneuvering around the largest expiry in the asset's history. Price behavior around the max pain level at $96,000 will serve as a key directional pivot into the year's end.

We discussed how Bitcoin traded quietly around $87,600 as festive volumes dried up. Flat open interest and a higher long-to-short ratio exposed bulls to liquidation risk.

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