Solana price prediction: SOL retests $143.5 resistance as bulls defend 50 EMA

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SOL retests 143.5 resistance zone

Highlights

Solana trades around $143 after recovering from a liquidation-driven breakdown below $143.5 resistance
4h RSI climbs back above 50 as price retests 1h EMA resistance cluster
Negative funding rate signals traders reducing exposure after a consolidation breakdown

Earlier in the week, Solana had broken above the $143.5 resistance level and extended the move to a high of $148, posting a 6.3% gain at the peak. However, momentum stalled near that high, leading to a two-day consolidation between $148 and the $143.5 region. This hesitation at higher levels hinted at underlying supply pressures. The eventual breakdown on Thursday marked a shift in short-term sentiment, dragging the price back below a zone that bulls had previously defended.

Solana price chart (Jan 2026). Source: TradingView

The sharp pullback flipped $143.5 back into resistance and triggered bearish technical developments. A bearish crossover between the 20 and 50 exponential moving averages on the 1-hour chart confirmed a shift in short-term trend bias. This resistance now carries added weight, as price action once again tests the level from below during Friday’s session. However, bulls have managed to recover off Thursday’s low, lifting the 4-hour RSI back above the 50 mark into positive territory.

Buyers defend the 50 EMA after a two-day consolidation and sharp Thursday liquidation

Solana continues to hold above the 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart, a level that has served as a launchpad for several rallies since the beginning of the year. This medium-term support structure is critical, as it provides bullish traders a reference for maintaining upward bias. Should this EMA continue to hold, buyers may interpret this week’s retracement as a healthy correction rather than a reversal.

From a derivatives standpoint, Thursday’s breakdown came even as the long-to-short ratio increased from 2.4 to 3.3, suggesting aggressive dip buying or trapped long positions. At the same time, funding rates stayed positive during the decline, reflecting bullish exposure. However, the sentiment has flipped slightly today, as Solana’s funding rate has turned negative, hinting that traders are scaling back on leverage or positioning for more downside.

SOL at risk of first bearish weekly close of 2026

A successful break above the $143.5 resistance and the cluster of 1-hour EMAs would tilt short-term bias back in favor of bulls. That scenario sets up a potential retest of the $148 high and possibly opens the door for further upside if broader crypto sentiment improves. Reclaiming that high would reinforce January’s bullish structure and keep weekly gains intact.

On the flip side, failure to breach the $143.5 ceiling and a breakdown below $141 would place Solana at risk of sliding toward $140 and $137.5. Such a move would erase weekly gains and mark the first bearish weekly close in 2026, reducing momentum and increasing the probability of extended profit-taking into next week.

In a recent analysis, we discussed how Solana held above the $143.5 support while consolidating below the 100-day EMA resistance. ETF inflows and whale accumulation supported the upside case despite the short-term range-bound price action.

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