Why is Monero falling today (January 25)?

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Monero Slides 10.00% Today

Highlights

Monero (XMR) has broken out of a multi-year consolidation range dating back to 2018, drawing renewed attention in the crypto space.
XMR is testing former resistance levels after setting new all-time highs and sees increased adoption as a privacy-focused payment method at select online casinos.
Technically, XMR trades at $463.01—below the MA-20 and MA-50 but above MA-200—with significant support at $457.23 and resistance at $473.46 for the near term.

Breakout from multi-year range drives renewed attention and adoption

Recently, Monero broke out of a multi-year consolidation range that had persisted since 2018, leading to renewed attention in the crypto space. As part of this development, XMR is now testing previous resistance levels, which is typical after reaching new all-time highs. In addition, the coin is solidifying its standing among top-ranked cryptocurrencies and is seeing growing adoption as a payment method at select online casinos, highlighting its appeal for privacy-focused transactions.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero trading below critical moving averages and notes a lack of clear bullish momentum in the short term. He points out the pressure from sellers and highlights the oversold oscillators, suggesting that the market could remain under stress. Kharitonov remains skeptical about the sustainability of the current uptrend, especially given the divergence between long-term and short-term momentum. He emphasizes that fresh adoption news may not be enough to offset technical weakness if resistance holds. "Without a decisive break above $473.46, I expect Monero to stay under bearish pressure, and traders should be cautious of a deeper correction," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Monero’s recent breakout signals structural strength and ongoing institutional recognition. He notes growing adoption in the online payments sector and sees renewed attention as reinforcing demand. Karapetjanc expects the robust weekly technicals to drive continued upside, especially with long-term support intact. "The bullish structure remains intact, and I believe further growth is likely as market confidence and use cases expand," he says.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, highlights the divergence between short-term bearish signals and stronger long-term technicals for Monero. He notes a tactical opportunity for contrarian traders if price rebounds off the $457.23 support zone. Mehta maintains a scenario-based outlook, citing the mixed momentum and current volatility bands. "A potential breakout above $473.46 could quickly shift sentiment, so I’m watching for intraday reversals as a tactical trade setup," he states.

Contrasting bullish momentum and oversold signals mark technical divergence

The nearest resistance for XMR is the MA-50 at $473.46, while Ichimoku analysis places dynamic support and resistance at $605.56. Momentum signals are mixed: the daily MACD and ADX maintain a bullish bias, but RSI remains in sell territory. Both the Stochastic RSI and BBP are deeply oversold, indicating strong selling pressure intraday. The CCI is neutral, and most oscillators confirm a bearish short-term outlook, with the Awesome Oscillator showing a neutral stance — highlighting a strong divergence between bullish long-term indicators and short-term weakness.

Last time, analysts noted that Monero was exhibiting short-term bearish pressure as it traded below its 20-day moving average but remained supported above its 50- and 200-day averages, with firm medium- and long-term trends intact. Despite dominant selling pressure reflected in negative momentum indicators and oversold signals, the MACD suggests upside potential, and analysts expect the asset to consolidate within a defined range, with strong weekly indicators favoring a bullish breakout scenario.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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