New Bitwise Uniswap ETF trust fails to spark rally

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Uniswap slides 10.60% to $4.31 today

Highlights

Bitwise established the Bitwise Uniswap ETF as a Delaware statutory trust, potentially paving the way for a future ETF tied to Uniswap.
The trust creation follows the SEC’s February 2025 decision to end its investigation into Uniswap Labs, altering the protocol’s regulatory environment.
UNI trades at $4.31, below MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with strong downward momentum and a projected range of $4.10–$4.75 amid persistent selling pressure.

ETF trust filing shifts regulatory outlook after SEC investigation ends

Bitwise has created a Delaware statutory trust named the 'Bitwise Uniswap ETF,' marking a procedural step potentially enabling a future ETF tied to Uniswap. This move follows the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ending its investigation into Uniswap Labs in February 2025, which altered the regulatory landscape for the protocol. Ongoing discussion centers around Uniswap’s governance and the decentralized model highlighted by this trust establishment.

Bearish signals intensify as weak momentum meets firm resistance

The technical picture remains weak for UNI. The closest resistance is at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $5.4685, with immediate support near the intraday low of $4.308. There is no golden or death cross on the chart. Momentum indicators such as the MACD continue to show a sell signal on both daily and weekly timeframes, the ADX is neutral at low levels indicating a lack of strong trend, the RSI and CCI are both in bearish territory, and the Stochastic RSI and CCI warn of oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power further confirms intraday seller dominance, and there is no immediate sign of reversal as overall momentum and oscillators urge caution.

Limited upside seen as consolidation favors further downside risk

Over the coming week, UNI is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $4.10 and $4.75. The probability of a notable upside move remains very low (less than 20%), and continued downward momentum increases the risk of further declines. The base case anticipates sideways consolidation within the $4.10 – $4.75 range, with resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun capping any short-term rallies. A decisive break below $4.10 could lead to new local lows due to persistent seller pressure and weak technical momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Uniswap’s technical setup as weak but acknowledges that regulatory clarity and potential institutional products are positives for long-term sentiment. He believes that while bears dominate the short-term chart, the Bitwise Uniswap ETF filing and the end of SEC scrutiny mark a turning point for market confidence. Karapetjanc expects UNI to consolidate within $4.10 – $4.75, with little chance of a breakout in the near term. "Solid fundamentals and improving sentiment can eventually drive UNI higher, but for now, patience is warranted as the market tests support," he says.

Previously it was reported that Uniswap remains under sustained selling pressure, trading below all key weekly moving averages with technical indicators such as the MACD, RSI, and CCI pointing to persistent bearish momentum and oversold conditions. In the near term, analysts expect the asset to continue consolidating within a tight range, with sellers retaining control and a low probability of breakout unless key resistance levels are surpassed.

Source of Data: UNI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.