Bitcoin price prediction: Downside risk grows as BTC falls below key averages

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Bitcoin slides 7.57% to $77,908 today

Highlights

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced one of their largest single-day outflows since August amid rising market uncertainty and investor risk-off behavior.
Macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve interest rate pauses and increased flows to gold, are driving cautious sentiment, while U.S. government holdings exceed 200,000 bitcoins with potential for further accumulation.
Bitcoin traded sharply lower to $77,908, well below the MA-20 ($90,791.85), with technical indicators signaling sustained bearish momentum and likely consolidation between $75,000 and $82,000.

ETF outflows and macro shifts drive renewed caution and institutional focus

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recently saw substantial outflows, marking one of their worst days since August as investors responded to market uncertainty and reduced exposure. Macroeconomic factors, including interest rate pauses by the Federal Reserve and increased safe-haven flows to gold, are influencing market sentiment. There is also increased attention on Bitcoin’s institutional involvement, with the U.S. government holding approximately 200,000 bitcoins through a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and contemplating further accumulation under proposed legislation.

Strong seller dominance as negative momentum breaches all key supports

Bitcoin is decisively below all major moving averages, with the nearest dynamic resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $89,522.25. Momentum is negative as the MACD indicates a strong sell signal, the ADX reflects weak trend strength, and oscillator readings such as the Stochastic RSI and CCI are oversold; the RSI at 33.22 remains in sell territory. Bull/Bear Power is deeply negative and the Awesome Oscillator supports the ongoing downside, while technicals confirm strong seller dominance after high intraday volatility.

Further losses likely as range narrows and rebound odds fade

In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to trade between $75,000 and $82,000 over the next five sessions, with this range aligning with typical volatility. Bearish momentum and intraday losses point to a low probability (under 20%) of a near-term price rebound, suggesting further declines are more likely based on consistently negative signals. Consolidation within this corridor is the baseline scenario unless support at $75,000 breaks, which could trigger additional losses and fresh local lows. A bullish case would require a decisive move above $82,000 with targets near the Ichimoku Kijun resistance around $89,500.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent bearish momentum in Bitcoin with price action confirming sustained selling pressure. He notes that outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and shifting macro trends are weighing on sentiment despite institutional accumulation under discussion. The analyst believes the short-term risk is skewed to the downside until fresh buying interest appears or major resistance at $82,000 is retaken. "Momentum is negative for now, but any decisive break above resistance could revive bullish sentiment quickly," says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that the partial U.S. government shutdown intensified downward pressure on major altcoins posting significant weekly losses and Bitcoin attempting to maintain key psychological support. Current market momentum remains weak, with technical indicators signaling elevated volatility and a potential test of lower support levels unless positive news from lawmakers emerges.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.