Bitcoin price prediction: Rally paused at $64,410.13 resistance? BTC up 1.18%

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Bitcoin gains 1.18% today after tax cut

Highlights

Japan passed legislation lowering Bitcoin tax to 20% and classifying crypto as financial instruments, enabling potential ETF launches and improving institutional access.
BlackRock advances its iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF and SpaceX's reported Bitcoin holdings reinforce growing institutional involvement amid currently declining on-chain demand.
BTC/USD shows strong short- to medium-term momentum, with an expected trading range of $61,052.04 to $64,410.13 and a high probability of further upside.

Institutional demand poised to rise amid regulatory and ETF developments

Japan's lower house has passed a bill reducing the tax on Bitcoin from 55% to 20% and reclassifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, paving the way for potential domestic Bitcoin ETF launches and dramatically improving the regulatory landscape for investors. This legislative action could meaningfully increase institutional demand and access in a key global market. In parallel, BlackRock's progress in launching its iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF after a fresh SEC filing supports expanded investment product options, while SpaceX's disclosure of sizable Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet highlights ongoing institutional participation. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows a sharp drop in Bitcoin demand, pointing to recent volatility and incomplete capitulation among market participants.

Technical momentum splits as price nears support with mixed signals

BTC/USD is trading above its hourly MA-20 at $63,302.07 and MA-50 at $62,473.61, but below the daily MA-200 set at $78,043.82. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $62,972.51 establishes immediate support on the chart. Momentum indicators are sending mixed messages: MACD signals Strong Buy, with ADX, RSI (62.52), Stoch RSI, and CCI all tilted to bullish, but BBP is Overbought, while the Awesome Oscillator remains Neutral and does not confirm the bullish bias. The price sits close to today’s low, with low intraday volatility and an initial gap of 960.01.

Sideways consolidation likely as resistance break eyed for upside

Over the next 2 days, BTC/USD is expected to consolidate within the $61,052.04 to $64,410.13 range. The most likely scenario is sideways trading in this corridor, with a high probability of an upward move should resistance break, targeting the upper boundary. If support at the lower end fails, there is a much smaller risk of a pullback toward $61,052.04. This corridor reflects typical volatility relative to current price levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the regulatory progress in Japan and large institutional holdings as supportive signals for Bitcoin’s broader adoption. However, he notes that technical and demand data show ongoing fragility, with volatility persisting and no clear sign of a bullish breakout. Kharitonov remains cautious while BTC/USD holds below the daily MA-200 and as on-chain metrics reflect stalling interest. "Until spot demand recovers and we see a sustained break above $78,043.82, I remain defensive on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook."

Previously it was reported that Japan advanced a landmark bill to reclassify cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as financial instruments, aligning them with traditional securities regulations and easing tax burdens. With Bitcoin now consolidating near key support and resistance levels amid this transformative policy shift and new institutional interest, traders should monitor for a breakout above $64,410.13 for potential upside continuation or a breakdown below $61,052.04 as a trigger for renewed downside risk.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.