-8.62% for Polygon — sellers dominate amid heavy volatility and bearish setup

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Polygon drops 8.62% today to $0.0965

Highlights

Polygon executed a 25.9 million POL token burn to reduce supply and support long-term value amid rising network adoption and on-chain volumes.
Q4 2025 saw on-chain payments and transfer volumes reach approximately $3.57 billion, with institutional traction from Calastone, rcUSD+ launches, and Brazilian government bond tokenization.
POL trades at $0.0965, well below MA-20 ($0.1202) and key resistance at $0.1360, with technicals indicating sustained bearish momentum and an 80%+ probability of further downside.

Token burn and institutional adoption sustain liquidity inflows from Ethereum

Polygon recently executed a 25.9 million POL token burn aimed at reducing supply and bolstering long-term value as network adoption grows, driving recent attention to the project. On-chain usage expanded significantly in Q4 2025, as payments and transfer volume reached approximately $3.57 billion across stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized assets. The network spotlighted new institutional applications, including Calastone's on-chain fund distribution, rcUSD+ token launches, and Brazilian government bond tokenization, along with Polymarket's move to native USDC settlement replacing bridged assets. Most capital inflows continued to originate from Ethereum, underscoring persistent liquidity migration.

Downtrend reinforced as technicals show oversold weakness and seller dominance

Momentum signals are decisively negative, with MACD and ADX both indicating a sell bias and confirming the strength of the prevailing downtrend. Oversold readings from the RSI (30.78), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index suggest prices are stretched to the downside, while Bull/Bear Power confirms sellers remain dominant intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also aligns with the downward move. The session opened with a gap down, and price is near the middle of today’s volatile range ($0.0839 – $0.1035), supporting a bearish technical outlook with elevated volatility.

Further downside risk persists as consolidation depends on resistance breakout

For the next five trading days, POL is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $0.0850 – $0.1150 given current conditions. The probability of further declines remains high, with potential stabilization if oversold momentum leads to near-term consolidation between support and resistance. A bullish reversal would require a breakout above $0.1150 and a move through the Kijun resistance for short covering, while continued downside could see a break below $0.0850 and continuation of the downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees improving fundamentals for Polygon despite the current technical weakness. He believes that recent token burns and expanding institutional use cases support long-term value. The market remains under pressure for now, but sentiment could shift quickly on any sign of a bullish reversal. "If oversold conditions trigger a bounce and on-chain growth persists, Polygon could surprise to the upside sooner than expected."

Previously it was reported that Polygon (POL) continues to exhibit pronounced bearish momentum, trading well below all major moving averages with momentum indicators such as MACD, ADX, and RSI confirming persistent weakness and oversold conditions. Support remains absent with resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun, and the probability of a near-term rebound is low amid persistent downward pressure and heightened volatility.

Source of Data: POL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.