Optimism price prediction: Can OP recover as bearish momentum dominates?

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Optimism drops 18.40% to $0.1534 today

Highlights

Coinbase's Base network will transition from Optimism's OP Stack to its own software architecture from February 19, 2026, reducing reliance on external technology and accelerating upgrades.
Despite continuing short-term compatibility and collaboration, Base's move marks a major structural shift in the Optimism technology ecosystem and the allocation model for up to 118 million OP tokens.
OP's price at $0.1534 trades well below MA-20 ($0.2003), MA-50 ($0.2686), and MA-200 ($0.4646), indicating strong seller pressure and likely further downside to $0.135.

Base's software shift disrupts OP token flows and network alignment

On February 19, 2026, Coinbase's Base network, originally built on Optimism's OP Stack, announced it will transition to its own Base-operated software architecture while maintaining short-term compatibility with OP Stack standards as node operators migrate. The prior arrangement allowed Base to potentially allocate up to 118 million OP tokens over six years, but the shift is aimed at reducing reliance on external service providers and accelerating network upgrades. Base and Optimism will continue collaborating, but the change marks a major structural evolution for Optimism's technology ecosystem.

Bearish momentum persists as OP tests oversold signals and lacks support

Technically, OP faces persistent downward pressure, with the price far below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200. The nearest resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2326, and there is no clear support immediately below the current level — increasing downside risk. Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, confirm a strong bearish trend, while RSI (27.97), Stochastic RSI, and CCI all signal an oversold market; Bull/Bear Power likewise supports continued selling dominance. Today’s trading session has shown high volatility, with OP opening at $0.1654 and declining sharply near session lows.

Further downside favored as volatility caps recovery potential for OP

In the next five trading days, OP is expected to remain within a $0.135 – $0.165 volatility band relative to current levels, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. The probability of a meaningful upward move is under 20%, thus further declines are the most likely scenario based on the prevailing trend and technical signals. Consolidation between $0.135 and $0.165 serves as the baseline outlook; a move above $0.165 would target resistance near $0.200, but bullish momentum appears limited. If OP falls below $0.135, new lows are likely in alignment with bearish technical structure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained bearish pressure on OP across all timeframes. The price remains well beneath its moving averages, while technical signals show sellers are firmly in control. The recent news about Base’s reduced reliance on the OP Stack highlights uncertainty for Optimism’s ecosystem. "Until OP can reclaim $0.165 with volume, I treat any recovery attempts as weak and expect lower levels to be tested."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase’s Base network, the largest within the OP Stack Superchain, will transition from Optimism’s technology to its own unified open-source core to reduce external dependencies and streamline operations, while maintaining public interoperability and encouraging alternative implementations. In the short term, Base will continue compatibility with OP Stack, but upcoming hard forks—including Base V1—will introduce Base-specific proofs and require node operators to migrate to new client releases as the protocol prepares for further independence and ecosystem expansion.

Source of Data: OP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.