-8.92% for Ethena — Downtrend confirmed despite spike in USDe supply

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Ethena drops 8.92% to $0.1083 today

Highlights

Ethena's Q1 2026 protocol revenue reached $566,730 in the first 47 days, surpassing Q4 2025 earnings of $463,260 and highlighting strong growth.
USDe stablecoin's circulating supply surged from $120 million in May 2025 to $1.15 billion, with white label supply exceeding $131 million amid ongoing market scrutiny.
ENA trades at $0.1083 below key resistance levels (MA-20: $0.1142, Kijun: $0.1195), with technical indicators confirming a persistent bearish trend and further downside risk.

Revenue surge meets outflows and token unlock concerns

Ethena reported notable growth in Q1 2026 protocol revenue with $566,730 earned in the first 47 days, exceeding the $463,260 recorded in Q4 2025. The circulating supply of Ethena's USDe stablecoin expanded from $120 million in May 2025 to $1.15 billion, while white label supply surpassed $131 million. These developments were accompanied by continued concerns regarding spot outflows and the approaching March token unlock, which contributed to increased market focus, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum holds as resistance and oscillators diverge

Technically, ENA is sustaining bearish momentum, with the price consistently below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at $0.1195 acts as resistance, backed by a strong sell signal from the MACD and a high ADX of 44.8, confirming a powerful downtrend. The RSI sits at 35.9, indicating mild oversold conditions, supported by similar Commodity Channel Index readings, while the Stochastic RSI is neutral but suggests localized overbought behavior intraday. Though Bull/Bear Power is marginally positive, sellers have dominated intraday action, and a divergence persists between neutral-to-oversold oscillators and strongly bearish momentum indicators.

Sideways trading favored as downside risk dominates outlook

In the short term, ENA is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $0.098 to $0.119 over the next five days. The probability of a price increase is low, estimated at less than 20%, so further declines are more likely. The main scenario sees ENA moving sideways within this corridor. Should the price break above $0.1195, a recovery attempt may follow, while a drop below $0.098 would indicate risk of deeper downside, in line with ongoing negative momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees strong fundamental growth at Ethena, with revenue and stablecoin supply accelerating. He notes that despite these positive drivers, macro sentiment remains cautious due to persistent selling pressure and looming token unlocks. Karapetjanc believes technicals clearly signal dominance by bears in the short term, but constructive factors could foster resilience if sentiment stabilizes. "With fundamentals improving, I remain optimistic — a breakout above $0.1195 could trigger fresh interest if negative sentiment eases in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that Ethena (ENA) is rebounding intraday but remains in a broader downtrend, trading below key moving averages and facing sustained bearish pressure indicated by negative momentum on the MACD and persistent weakness in the RSI. Despite recent buyer activity and short-term overbought oscillator readings, the asset is expected to consolidate in a range, with support at $0.1000 and resistance at $0.1240, as technical signals suggest limited breakout potential in the immediate term.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.