Stellar price prediction: Can ongoing RWA development help XLM recover after sharp fall?

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Stellar drops 8.17% today to $0.1517

Highlights

Stellar is among the most active blockchain projects supporting real-world asset (RWA) tokenization as of February 28, 2026, focusing on compliance and throughput.
Despite active RWA development, XLM price remains under broad selling pressure, reflecting limited positive price response to ecosystem progress.
XLM trades at $0.1517, below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with resistance at $0.16 and short-term downside favored within a $0.1350–$0.1550 range.

Development activity in RWA tokenization persists despite price headwinds

Stellar has recently been highlighted for its involvement in the development of real-world asset (RWA) markets in the crypto sector. As of February 28, 2026, it was reported among the most active blockchain projects in development activity tied to RWAs, with ongoing efforts to support tokenization of traditional assets. These advancements reflect continued focus on high throughput and compliance for asset tokenization, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance holds and volatility climbs

The current price of XLM at $0.1517 is trading below the MA-20 ($0.1610), MA-50 ($0.1868), and MA-200 ($0.2805), indicating clear short-, medium-, and long-term downside pressure from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $0.1610, which acts as immediate resistance above the market. Momentum signals remain bearish, with both the MACD and ADX on the daily chart pointing to a continuation of negative momentum. The RSI sits at 42.6, not yet in oversold territory, while the Stochastic RSI projects a strong sell despite being elevated, and the CCI is neutral near zero. Bull/Bear Power is marginally positive, suggesting a slight intraday advantage for buyers even as the broader context stays bearish, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, implying it does not reinforce the main trend at this time. XLM opened at $0.1587 after a moderate gap down from the previous close of $0.1652, and has since dropped to near the low of today’s range ($0.15–$0.1599) with high volatility and continued pressure after the open. Most oscillators and momentum indicators align with the current intraday weakness, with only minor divergence from Bull/Bear Power.

Downside favored as resistance stays firm and breakout risk rises

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is adjusted to $0.1350–$0.1550 to reflect the current market position and typical volatility. The probability of upward movement is very low (less than 20%), while further downside remains much more likely. The baseline scenario projects the price consolidating within a sideways corridor between support near $0.14 and resistance close to $0.16. In a bullish case, XLM would need to break above the $0.16 resistance zone, while a bearish scenario would see a decisive move below $0.14, opening room for further declines. Overall, technicals continue to favor the downside in the short term.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, macro and sentiment analyst at Traders Union, sees Stellar staying under pressure as technical momentum remains negative. He highlights the project's ongoing work in asset tokenization as a key long-term strength, even as current price action reflects broader market weakness. Karapetjanc believes sentiment is hurt by lingering volatility, but constructive fundamentals offer a foundation for eventual recovery. In his words: "If Stellar can sustain its development pace and the market stabilizes, a break above $0.16 could open the way for a healthier rebound, so I remain cautiously optimistic in the short term."

Previously it was reported that Stellar (XLM) is experiencing a short-term rebound above its 20-day moving average amid high intraday volatility, but remains constrained below key medium- and long-term moving averages with the main resistance near the 50-day average. Despite oversold conditions signaled by oscillators like RSI and CCI, momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX continue to favor sellers, indicating that the broader trend remains weak unless significant resistance levels are overcome.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.