Bitcoin price prediction: Will ETF demand fuel more gains? BTC up 3.02% to $69961.53

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Bitcoin rises 3.02% today to $69,961

Highlights

Strong institutional inflows of over $568 million into US Bitcoin ETFs have reduced exchange reserves to multi-year lows, with ETFs and corporate treasuries now holding about 2.4 million BTC collectively.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has dropped to 58.5% as capital rotates toward Ethereum, indicating a significant shift in investor preference within crypto assets.
Technical analysis signals high intraday volatility and mixed momentum, with Bitcoin expected to consolidate between $62,000 and $75,000, exhibiting a higher likelihood of downward movement in the near term.

Institutional accumulation and capital rotation reduce Bitcoin dominance

Bitcoin faces ongoing volatility centered around March 10, 2026, as institutional inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs have been strong, totaling over $568 million in the last two weeks. Exchange reserves on centralized platforms have declined to their lowest levels since 2019, with institutions and ETFs holding about 1.3 million BTC, or 6.7% of supply, and corporate treasuries now owning nearly 1.1 million BTC. Capital rotation toward Ethereum is accelerating, leading to a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance to 58.5%. These factors shape the current Bitcoin market environment.

Mixed momentum as bullish intraday moves clash with bearish signals

Technical analysis shows BTC trading above both the MA-20 and the Ichimoku Kijun, establishing the Kijun ($68,280.14) as immediate support, while remaining below the MA-50 and well under the MA-200. The MACD and ADX on the daily chart both signal ongoing bearish momentum, whereas intraday Bull/Bear Power indicates strong buyer activity as it sits in overbought territory. The Stochastic RSI reveals renewed buying interest, but the CCI and RSI remain neutral or slightly negative, suggesting only moderate oversold conditions. BTC opened the session slightly higher and is now near the day's high, following a $2,050.37—or 3.02%—increase, reflecting high intraday volatility and persistent upward momentum despite mixed signals across indicators.

Limited upside as odds favor further consolidation or decline

For the next five trading days, BTC is expected to trade within a $62,000 to $75,000 volatility band relative to current levels, representing typical price swings of around ±12%. The likelihood of a price increase is low (under 20%), which makes further downside more probable. The baseline scenario calls for consolidation between established support and resistance levels. A move above $75,000 would trigger a bullish scenario, while a drop below $62,000 could lead to further declines toward lower weekly supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term technical strength in Bitcoin, driven by institutional inflows and declining exchange reserves. However, he notes persistent bearish momentum and weak probability for a breakout above $75,000. The base case is further consolidation with downside risk if $62,000 fails. "Until Bitcoin can reclaim the MA-50, the market remains vulnerable to renewed declines; I remain cautious in this environment."

Last time, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s supply has approached its final cap, with over 20 million coins mined and new issuance slowing due to the programmed halving cycle. While the market largely anticipates this predictable supply trajectory and has already priced it in, the milestone underscores Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative and reinforces its long-term store-of-value thesis, with near-term price action likely to be more influenced by macroeconomic conditions and liquidity factors.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.