Bitcoin trades up after Federal Reserve delays rate cuts on inflation fears

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Bitcoin rises 2.71% to $71,354 today

Highlights

Surging Middle East tensions and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent oil above $100, inflaming macro risk for Bitcoin.
Heightened inflation fears and regulatory crackdowns in key markets weaken Bitcoin’s liquidity, legal certainty, and global accessibility.
Bitcoin trades with short-term bullish momentum but faces medium-term resistance, with high volatility and likely consolidation between $68,000 and $74,500.

Geopolitical tension and Fed stance hit bitcoin liquidity, regulatory risks mount

On Wednesday, escalating conflict in the Middle East—including attacks on oil tankers and threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran—has driven Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, introducing acute geopolitical risk for Bitcoin. These events have triggered fears of persistent energy market disruption, heightening inflation expectations and prompting the US Federal Reserve to delay or reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The combination of war-driven macroeconomic instability and tighter monetary conditions directly impacts global liquidity, which is critical for Bitcoin's capital inflows and price stability. Additionally, ongoing regulatory scrutiny in jurisdictions like South Korea, where the Financial Intelligence Unit has proposed sanctions against major exchanges for anti-money laundering lapses, further complicates legal and market access for Bitcoin. Elevated geopolitical risk, delayed monetary easing, and mounting regulatory action together pose substantial threats to Bitcoin’s liquidity, accessibility, and legal certainty.

Bullish sentiment challenged as technical barriers and weak momentum persist

BTC now trades above the MA-20 but just under the MA-50, reflecting ongoing short-term bullish sentiment while facing resistance from the medium-term trend line. The price is still well below the MA-200, indicating sustained longer-term pressure, and the Ichimoku Kijun at $68,280.14 offers near-term support. Among momentum indicators, MACD on the daily chart remains strongly bearish and the ADX points to a weakening trend, though the RSI and CCI stay bullish and the Stoch RSI signals overbought conditions; BBP suggests buyers maintain current dominance with the Awesome Oscillator supporting upward movement. High intraday volatility persists, with BTC trading near session highs due to continued buyer interest, but momentum and oscillator divergence signals that upward moves could face resistance.

Downside favored as technicals signal limited upside in coming sessions

For the next five trading days, BTC is expected to trade within a volatility band of $68,000 – $74,500 relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), as suggested by weekly technical indicators, making a decline more likely. The baseline scenario is for price consolidation between identified support and resistance. A bullish development would require a sustained breakout above $74,500, while a move below $68,000 could trigger further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin facing major headwinds from global geopolitical tensions and tougher regulatory scrutiny. He believes that, despite recent short-term buying, technical resistance and broader macro risk limit upside potential. The analyst remains cautious, noting elevated volatility and weakening momentum. "Unless BTC can reclaim $74,500, I see the base case as sideways or lower in the days ahead."

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin is exhibiting short-term strength with its price above the 20-day moving average but still below key medium- and long-term averages, as institutional inflows and whale accumulation support the asset despite high volatility and mixed momentum indicators. Technical signals suggest near-term exhaustion with downside favored, as BTC is trading near range highs with resistance around $72,000 and support near $68,000.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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