Solana price prediction: Will sideways action continue? SOL dips below key averages

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Solana drops 1.99% today to $88.32

Highlights

A previously unidentified wallet unlocked 1,817,260 SOL, worth $163.86 million, from staking on March 21, 2026, without triggering significant immediate selling.
Market attention is focused on whether these unlocked tokens will be sold or re-staked, while Solana's network activity remains steady near resistance levels amid overall selling pressure.
Technical signals are mixed, with mild upward momentum offset by dominant selling pressure and projections favoring a downward or sideways move within an $85.36–$91.92 price corridor over five days.

Large token unlock triggers focus on flows despite muted selling response

On March 21, 2026, an unknown wallet unlocked 1,817,260 SOL tokens, valued at approximately $163.86 million, from staking. Market participants did not engage in significant selling following this large unlocking event, and the subsequent handling of these tokens — whether sold or re-staked — was reported as a key focus. Solana recorded steady network activity and consolidated near resistance zones, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Divergent momentum as oscillators flag reversal risk with mixed signals

Momentum indicators are mixed. Both MACD and ADX on the daily chart suggest mild upward momentum, but the daily move is down with SOL slipping 1.99% since yesterday's close, after a slightly lower open. The current price is near the midpoint of today's range ($86.38 – $89.20), with moderate volatility. RSI remains in buying territory while Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, and BBP signals overbought conditions, pointing to buyer dominance but also an increased risk of a short-term reversal. Divergence among oscillators and momentum readings, along with a lack of strong price confirmation, maintains a cautious intraday tone with pressure following the open.

Downside bias favored as volatility bands narrow and support tested

Over the next five trading days, SOL is projected to trade within a typical volatility band between $85.36 and $91.92. The probability of an upward move is low (below 20%), suggesting a higher chance of further decline. The baseline expectation is for sideway price movement between immediate support and resistance. If downward pressure intensifies and support fails, a move toward $85.40 is likely, as longer-term indicators continue to favor the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees fundamental support for Solana after the large unlocking event did not trigger panic selling. He notes that steady network activity and resilient sentiment are positive signals, even as technicals show continued downward pressure. The analyst maintains a constructive bias and believes the $85.36–$91.92 range should hold in the near term. "As long as sentiment remains steady and network metrics support the price, I view any dips toward $85.40 as opportunities rather than threats."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana's outlook was constrained by persistent long-term selling pressure and heightened macroeconomic and regulatory risks, despite intermittent bullish signals. This update adds nuance by highlighting the market's muted reaction to a major token unlock and emphasizing that network stability, rather than immediate price action, will be critical for Solana's resilience amid prevailing downside risk.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.