Solana price prediction: $88.40 support in focus? SOL edges higher

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Solana gains 0.71% today to $91.92

Highlights

SEC's ongoing classification of SOL as a potential unregistered security restricts institutional flows and ETF eligibility, heightening regulatory risk.
Solana's collaborations with Mastercard and Western Union on stablecoin payments broaden institutional exposure but intensify compliance and anti-money laundering scrutiny.
SOL trades in a short-term bullish structure within an $88.40–$96.60 range, but technical signals indicate a higher near-term risk of price decline.

Institutional adoption grows as regulatory risks intensify for Solana

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty for Solana continues as the SEC has classified SOL as a potential unregistered security, directly restricting institutional participation and eligibility for ETFs. The asset's increased integration with major financial institutions, such as through the Solana Developer Platform's use by Mastercard, Western Union, and Worldpay for stablecoin settlement and payments, expands its visibility but also subjects it to heightened scrutiny regarding compliance and anti-money laundering obligations. Advanced privacy frameworks introduced on Solana to attract institutional investment may further increase legislative and enforcement risk if authorities determine these features hinder transaction transparency and monitoring.

Mixed momentum and resistance cap bullish advance amid buyer dominance

Momentum indicators on D1 are mixed: MACD signals buy, while the ADX suggests a neutral and weak trend. RSI and CCI are both slightly bullish without signaling overbought or oversold territory, while Stoch RSI is neutral. BBP is overbought at 2.80, indicating buyers dominate intraday, but the AO remains neutral and does not confirm a clear trend. Today’s session opened slightly below the previous close (no material gap), with the current price near the upper end of the day’s range ($90.80 – $92.89); volatility is moderate and intraday tone shows strength toward session highs. Note the divergence between strong short-term momentum and hesitant oscillators, indicating the potential for short-term overextension.

Bearish signals persist as upward breakout remains unlikely

For the next five trading days, the expected range for SOL is $88.40 to $96.60 based on typical volatility and alignment with the weekly forecast. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a decrease more likely in the short term due to unanimous weekly bearish signals from RSI, ADX, MACD, and MAs. The baseline scenario is sideways trading between the indicated support and resistance. A bullish case would require a break above $96.60, while a bearish scenario involves a drop below $88.40, which could accelerate downside momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana in a constructive short-term structure but capped by long-term bearish pressure. He notes increased institutional interest and major payments integrations, but regulatory uncertainty remains a serious overhang. The analyst believes short-term momentum is strong, however, the probability of near-term upside is limited by technical and regulatory headwinds. Karapetjanc maintains a positive long-term outlook anchored in expanding real-world use cases. "If Solana holds above $88.40 despite the compliance risks, I see further adoption unlocking new upside in the coming months."

Earlier, analysts noted that while Solana exhibited bullish short- and medium-term momentum, the asset continued to face significant long-term resistance and elevated downside risk. The present analysis adds new weight to this view as ongoing regulatory headwinds and subdued weekly momentum underscore the importance of watching for a break below $88.40, which could trigger accelerated selling pressure.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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