CFTC eases reporting requirements for prediction markets
Staff at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter regarding prediction markets. The document effectively exempts such platforms from some swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements.
According to the statement, the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight, Clearing and Risk will not recommend that the regulator launch enforcement actions against designated contract markets (DCMs) and clearing organizations for failing to comply with these reporting requirements.
Why the letter was issued
“This position came in response to numerous requests from DCMs and DCOs that list and clear event contracts,” the statement said. The CFTC noted that the decision is intended to streamline the review of such requests and ensure consistent treatment of market participants.
The no-action letter was published to eliminate regulatory uncertainty around platforms offering event contracts. Formally, such instruments may fall under the definition of “swaps” because they depend on events with binary outcomes.
The letter notes that these contracts may meet the definition of a swap, but they are traded on DCMs rather than swap execution facilities. At the same time, their characteristics are closer to futures and options on futures: they have standardized terms, exchange-trading protocols, fungibility, and the ability to offset positions.
As a result, companies will be able to report certain event contracts directly to the CFTC in a format similar to reporting for futures and options.
The letter currently lists 19 beneficiaries, including Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Titan, and Bitnomial. The CFTC also clarified that other entities wishing to list event contracts may request a similar no-action position.
Prediction market leaders
Kalshi and Polymarket remain the main players in the prediction market sector. Kalshi is focused on the regulated US market: the platform offers event contracts under CFTC oversight and is actively expanding from retail clients to institutional participants. Polymarket, by contrast, emerged as a global crypto-oriented platform and became especially known for markets tied to political, economic, and cryptocurrency events. The competition between Kalshi and Polymarket now largely shapes the development of the entire sector.
At the same time, the market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major financial and crypto companies showing growing interest. New entrants and contenders include Gemini Titan, Bitnomial, LedgerX/MIAX, and other platforms seeking regulatory clarity and looking to launch their own event contracts. The interest of major players shows that prediction markets are gradually moving beyond a niche product and becoming a separate segment at the intersection of derivatives, crypto, and online trading.
As a reminder, the CFTC received mixed feedback on proposed rules for regulating prediction markets.
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
