Solana price prediction: $89.90 resistance in focus? SOL trades up

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Solana climbs 1.00% to $85.54 today

Highlights

Goldman Sachs has fully liquidated its Solana ETF positions, removing significant institutional demand and dampening market liquidity for Solana products.
Persistent regulatory concerns, including the SEC's view of Solana as a potential unregistered security, constrain ETF eligibility and discourage additional institutional inflows.
SOL trades below major moving averages with short- and medium-term bearish pressure, and is expected to remain within an $83.80 to $87.15 range, with limited upside probability.

Liquidity positioned lower as Goldman exit and SEC pressure persist

Goldman Sachs' recent liquidation of all Solana ETF holdings, as reported in its SEC Form 13F filing for the first quarter of 2026, removes a major source of institutional demand and directly impacts market liquidity for Solana-linked products. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty persists, with the SEC maintaining its classification of Solana as a potential unregistered security, which restricts ETF eligibility and limits further institutional participation. Simultaneously, more than $700 million in crypto liquidations, including Solana, reflect the spillover from broader market turmoil and heighten overall risk aversion in the ecosystem.

Mixed signals as short-term resistance and mild oversold conditions align

The $85.54 level places SOL just below the 20-day simple moving average ($88.45), directly at the 50-day SMA ($85.92), and well beneath the 200-day SMA ($109.81). Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $89.91. Daily indicators are mixed: the MACD on the D1 chart signals a strong buy, but the Average Directional Index remains neutral, suggesting a lack of conviction. The RSI reads 43.78 and the CCI registers -61.48, both hinting at mild oversold conditions, supported by oversold readings in Stoch RSI and BBP. Recent price action shows a moderate climb with a small opening gap and trading near intraday highs, though oscillator divergence calls for caution.

Downside risk elevated as low breakout odds restrict upside

Over the next five sessions, typical volatility should keep SOL within a range of $83.80 to $87.15. The probability of a sustained move higher is very low—less than 20%—implying the risk of a downside break is much greater. Baseline scenario favors continued sideways trading near current levels. Should SOL close above $89.90, a test of resistance is likely. Conversely, a move below $83.80 could trigger further downside if selling accelerates.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana at a pivotal juncture after significant institutional retreat and persistent regulatory overhang. He believes the downside risk dominates, with technicals showing little conviction for a rebound. The base case remains rangebound trading near $85.54, with a bearish bias if $83.80 fails. "Without regulatory clarity and a return of institutional support, I see no reason to expect a durable rally in Solana."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana faced ongoing regulatory pressure and limited upside potential despite pockets of resilient network activity and institutional interest. The latest developments reinforce the asset's vulnerability to both macro-driven liquidations and institutional outflows, making a sustained move above $89.90 a critical inflection point for traders monitoring breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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