THORChain extends gains as short-term sellers lose steam

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THORChain gains 7.78% today to $0.457

Highlights

THORChain suffered a $10.7 million exploit on May 15, 2026, driven by a newly added validator exploiting a GG20 signing vulnerability.
The protocol swiftly froze its network and is working with law enforcement and analytics partners to recover assets and fortify security.
RUNE remains under bearish pressure, trades below key resistance, and is expected to consolidate between $0.440 and $0.500 barring a breakout above $0.5235.

Exploit disclosure drives emergency freeze and asset recovery focus

THORChain has disclosed a $10.7 million exploit of one of its network vaults, with the breach occurring on May 15, 2026, after a newly added validator node leveraged a vulnerability in the GG20 signing system. The protocol’s automatic solvency system promptly detected irregular vault activity and triggered an immediate network freeze across multiple blockchains, followed by emergency governance actions to halt all operations. In response, THORChain identified the compromised node, traced stolen assets to Ethereum addresses, and is working with Outrider Analytics and law enforcement to pursue recovery and strengthen security oversight.

Oversold readings soften selling as strong resistance holds

RUNE is currently trading beneath the SMA-20 ($0.5280), SMA-50 ($0.4724), and SMA-200 ($0.5288), reflecting clear resistance at these technical levels. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $0.5235, presenting immediate overhead resistance, while the recent session opened with a slight upward gap from $0.424 to $0.432. On the momentum front, the daily MACD is neutral, but the ADX indicates strong selling pressure. Indicators such as the RSI (35.80), CCI (-117.42), and Stoch RSI (1.94) show an oversold posture, suggesting sellers may be approaching near-term exhaustion. BBP remains negative, confirming seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator is still aligned with the overarching bearish trend. In the current session, price action is testing the upper end of today’s range ($0.425–$0.454), exhibiting moderate volatility and some intraday strength despite prevailing negative momentum.

Sideways trade expected as bearish signals limit upside potential

For the upcoming week, RUNE is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $0.440 to $0.500. Given persistent negative signals across daily and weekly timeframes, the probability of a sustained rally above current levels remains under 20%. The base scenario anticipates a period of sideways consolidation between $0.440 and $0.500. Should the price close above immediate resistance at $0.5235, a bullish breakout could challenge the medium-term trend. Conversely, a breach below $0.440 on a closing basis would signal increased risk of further downside toward new local lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that the recent $10.7 million exploit is a clear sign of persistent security weaknesses and elevated operational risks for THORChain. He sees technical resistance converging with bearish sentiment, with price struggling beneath major moving averages and oversold readings hinting at only tentative support. Tactical bias remains defensive amid network disruption and unresolved asset recovery. "Base case is sideways movement between $0.440 and $0.500, with no conviction for upside until price decisively clears $0.5235," he states.

Earlier, analysts noted that THORChain continued to experience persistent selling pressure and heightened volatility following a significant protocol exploit. The current analysis underscores this bearish bias, highlighting that any sustained move above the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.5235 would be required to shift momentum, while traders should remain alert to downside risks if support at $0.440 fails.

Source of Data: RUNE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.