Avalanche price prediction: Will $8.60 support hold as AVAX slips further?

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Avalanche drops 7.03% to $8.86 today

Highlights

Kraken introduced global AVAX staking, offering up to 10% annual rewards and expanding token utility on its platform.
Avalanche formed a research committee of industry experts to guide its upcoming grant program, aiming to strengthen ecosystem governance and development.
AVAX trades under key moving averages with momentum and oscillators signaling bearish pressure; short-term trading range is expected between $8.60 and $9.10, with further downside likely.

Token demand supported by Kraken staking amid weak price action

Kraken launched global AVAX staking, providing Avalanche holders with up to 10% annual rewards through its Bonded Staking service and supplementary flexible options, a move that increases utility and the appeal of holding tokens on the platform. This step may stimulate increased demand for AVAX by incentivizing long-term holding and participation in Avalanche27s ecosystem. Additionally, Avalanche announced the formation of a research committee for its upcoming grant program, composed of experts from the fields of economics, institutional investment, blockchain, and academia, potentially enhancing governance standards and long-term development — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance aligns with oversold signals

Technically, AVAX faces resistance at $9.54 (SMA-20), $9.38 (SMA-50), and $11.25 (SMA-200), with the daily Ichimoku Kijun also acting as resistance at $9.71. Weak momentum conditions are confirmed by neutral readings from the D1 MACD and ADX, while both MACD and ADX signal 'Sell' on the weekly timeframe. The D1 RSI and CCI remain in bearish zones, and Stoch RSI is now oversold, indicating price is stretched to the downside, but without buyer support. The D1 BBP is positive, and the AO remains neutral, failing to signal a decisive turn.

Volatility range holds as upside prospects remain subdued

Over the next five trading days, AVAX is expected to consolidate within a volatility band between $8.60 and $9.10, with a low probability of a sustained upward move. Should the price break above the $9.1039;9.20 immediate resistance area, a short covering rally toward higher intraday resistances could occur, though this remains unlikely based on prevailing signals. On the downside, a break below $8.60 would likely prompt further losses, though oversold indicators suggest minor stabilization attempts could emerge within the range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche remaining under clear selling pressure despite the new staking incentives and governance advances. Technically, resistance levels and momentum signals point to a weak setup in the short term. He notes that oversold readings could limit further near-term downside, but no strong reversal signals are present. "Until AVAX can reclaim resistance at $9.20, I remain cautious and expect only limited rebounds within the current range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was exhibiting sustained bearish momentum despite continued growth and institutional interest in its ecosystem. The recent launch of global staking options and new governance initiatives provide incremental positive drivers, but traders should monitor whether these developments can help AVAX defend the $8.60 support amid prevailing downside pressure.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.