U.S. offshore prediction market activity reaches up to $34 billion, report says

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U.S. offshore prediction market activity

Highlights

U.S. traders account for an estimated $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore prediction market volume on platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets, despite geo-blocking.
In 2024, offshore platforms comprised 84.4% of $16.8 billion annual volume, but their share drops to 60.9% of a projected $65.0 billion total in 2025 as regulated U.S. operators expand.
CFTC-regulated venues processed $74 billion in the past 12 months, with Kalshi contributing $70 billion, while offshore platforms handled $85 billion, reducing their market share to 54% from 84%.

Report estimates scale of offshore access

As reported by The Block, U.S. users continue to access offshore prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Myriad Markets despite countrywide geo-blocking requirements, with an estimated $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore volume tied to American traders. The consulting firm says Polymarket alone represents between $11 billion and $27 billion of that activity, which it describes as a conservative estimate.

The report says 12.5% to 31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume occurs on offshore platforms, and about 30% of Polymarket trading volume during the measured period is attributable to U.S.-based users. It bases its analysis on trading-volume data from Dune Analytics and says blockchain-based venues dominate this activity because crypto wallets provide anonymity and many platforms lack know-your-customer checks.

Crane Zeng says offshore platforms accounted for 84.4% of an estimated $16.8 billion in combined annual volume across tracked venues in 2024. In 2025, that offshore share falls to 60.9% of a much larger $65.0 billion total, suggesting regulated U.S. operators are gaining ground even as offshore activity continues at scale.

Regulatory shift reshapes market competition

Prediction markets have grown rapidly over the past two years as platforms let users place yes-or-no wagers on outcomes across politics, economics, sports and entertainment. Bernstein, which the report cites, said in April that prediction market volume could reach about $1 trillion by 2030, implying an 80% compound annual growth rate.

The regulatory backdrop in the U.S. is also changing. Polymarket was barred from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after serving American users without proper registration, while Kalshi later prevailed in an appeal after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to block election-related contracts in 2024. Polymarket has since received CFTC approval to re-enter the U.S. through a subsidiary after acquiring the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX, but its global venue remains banned from serving U.S. customers without a Designated Contract Market license.

The report says CFTC-regulated firms including Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx and Gemini process $74 billion in the measured 12 months, with Kalshi contributing $70 billion of that total. Offshore platforms collectively handle $85 billion over the same period, leaving them with 54% of the combined market, down sharply from 84% in 2024.

In our earlier article on Robinhood’s IPO underwriting approval, we covered how the company received regulatory clearance to expand beyond brokerage services and participate directly in primary capital markets. We also noted the parallel surge in Robinhood’s platform assets, funded accounts, and trading activity, framing the approval as a catalyst that could increase retail participation and volatility around major market events.

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