XRP price prediction: Will $1.1109 support hold? XRP trades flat

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XRP drops 0.73% today, trades at $1.13

Highlights

SEC approval of the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, listing XRP as an eligible asset, broadens regulated U.S. investor access to XRP exposure.
Japan's updated regulations reduce crypto transaction taxes and enable domestic crypto ETFs covering XRP, lowering barriers for issuers and investors.
XRP/USD is rangebound between $1.1109 and $1.1914, with weak technical conviction and a 67% probability of further downside.

Regulatory approvals and ETF launches boost access as selling persists

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved NYSE Arca's request to list the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, which names XRP as an eligible asset, enabling institutional and retail investors in the U.S. to access XRP exposure through a regulated exchange-traded fund structure. On the same day, Japan implemented a law reducing taxes on cryptocurrency transactions and facilitating the launch of domestic crypto ETFs, also covering XRP, which lowers barriers for both local fund issuers and investors. SBI Holdings' recent ETF filings targeting Bitcoin-XRP pairings and hybrids with gold outline intentions to further expand the asset class, while Elon Musk's X platform has added interactive XRP tracking, enhancing real-time visibility and engagement among users. These regulatory and product developments may set up increased utility and market access, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum with technical resistance and oversold signals

On the hourly chart, XRP/USD is positioned below the MA-20 at $1.1346 but slightly above the MA-50 at $1.1320, while the daily chart shows a significant gap below the MA-200 at $1.5887. Immediate resistance is established by the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.1419, with key support at $1.1109 and upside resistance at $1.1914. The RSI stands at 48.54, tilting toward sellers, and Stoch RSI readings display oversold conditions. MACD and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, CCI is also neutral, and ADX indicates a presence of buyer activity, though BBP signals continued intraday seller dominance. Combined, these mixed indicators reflect an inconsistent technical backdrop with no decisive directional bias.

Downside favored as broad volatility limits breakout potential

Over the coming trading days, XRP/USD is likely to fluctuate within the $1.1109 to $1.1914 range, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a 33% probability of an upward move versus a 67% chance of a decline, so downward momentum remains the more probable scenario in the short term. Sustained upward movement would require a break above the immediate resistance at $1.1419, while a bearish scenario would be confirmed by a drop below the lower boundary near $1.1109. For now, the baseline scenario anticipates price remaining rangebound with modest volatility.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the latest wave of regulatory approvals and new ETF initiatives as a strong macro signal for growing institutional acceptance of XRP. He believes that U.S. and Japanese policy shifts, combined with heightened retail visibility thanks to new digital tools, create a constructive fundamental backdrop. However, price action is still suppressed by short-term selling pressure and mixed technicals. In his view, the convergence of policy support and product innovation could set the stage for positive moves if resistance levels are broken. "If XRP can reclaim $1.1419 and broader flows pick up, momentum could quickly turn in favor of buyers as the fundamentals now appear strongly aligned."

Earlier, analysts noted that declining activity and persistently low fee generation on the XRP Ledger pointed to waning user engagement. The recent regulatory advances and new financial products involving XRP introduce fresh utility and potential market access, but traders should watch for a decisive move above resistance at $1.1419 to signal any meaningful shift in sentiment.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.