Solana token unlock drives Solana lower on increased circulating supply

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Solana drops 4.77% to $68.34 today

Highlights

Goldman Sachs' liquidation of over $100 million in Solana ETF holdings triggered a significant institutional outflow, intensifying recent sell pressure.
A large scheduled unlock of 600,000 SOL tokens added to market supply during reduced demand, heightening downward momentum.
SOL trades below key averages with oscillators deeply oversold, as price holds near $68 support; baseline forecast is consolidation between $64.09 and $75.92 short-term.

Institutional outflows and token unlocks deepen market pressure

Goldman Sachs liquidated over $100 million in spot Solana ETF holdings, a significant institutional outflow that, according to Tradingkey, directly reduced long-side participation in the asset. At the same time, a scheduled unlock of more than 600,000 SOL tokens injected additional supply into the market during a period of softer demand, further amplifying downward pressure. Morgan Stanley's submission of a second amended filing for its Ethereum and Solana ETFs to the U.S. SEC, reported by Weex, signaled ongoing regulatory developments for related investment vehicles but did not provide immediate relief to the prevailing sentiment.

Mixed momentum and oversold signals reinforce technical resistance

On the technical side, SOL trades below the 4-hour MA-20 at $72.24, MA-50 at $69.8, and well under the long-term MA-200 at $98.42. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $71.77 as immediate resistance, with range-bound action stalling beneath this threshold. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD and ADX remain neutral, but RSI at 40.77 signals a sell bias, while Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power are all in oversold territory, highlighting persistent seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the current pressure from sellers, with price activity concentrated near session lows amid moderate volatility.

Downside risk dominates as price consolidation remains likely

In the near term, SOL is likely to oscillate within a range of $64.09 to $75.92, reflecting a typical volatility band for current levels. There is a 74% probability of further downside with just a 26% likelihood of a rebound, pointing to continued seller control over the coming sessions. Price consolidation appears to be the baseline expectation, with any bullish reversal dependent on a break above the $71.77 Kijun level and a close above $75.92, while breaching $64.09 would confirm an extension of the downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent Goldman Sachs liquidation and the token unlock as clear tests of Solana’s resilience at current levels. He notes persistent downside pressure, but believes that growing regulatory engagement by major institutions like Morgan Stanley hints at a stronger long-term case for SOL. For now, technicals and supply signals suggest sellers remain in control, yet the probability of a bullish turnaround will rise if price reclaims key resistances. "Solana’s fundamentals and global adoption remain strong, so a recovery could follow once current supply pressures ease and sentiment shifts," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was under sustained selling pressure with weak technical signals suggesting downside risk. The latest combination of substantial institutional outflows and a major token unlock further reinforces a bearish scenario, making the $64 level a key downside area to monitor for potential acceleration in the trend.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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