Solana rises as technical signals remain weak despite recent rebound: weekly review

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Solana rises 10.25% this week

Highlights

Solana remains under strong medium- and long-term selling pressure, trading below key moving averages at $72.01.
Bearish momentum dominates as technical indicators signal persistent seller control and oversold conditions despite a modest price rebound.
SOL is expected to trade between $65.00 and $79.00 next week, with downside risk prevailing barring a break above $79.00.

Institutional adoption and upgrades drive sentiment amid security risks

Moody's has integrated its credit ratings platform with the Solana blockchain, allowing issuers to embed independent credit assessments directly onto tokenized bonds and real-world assets. The network has seen about $2 billion in tokenized real-world assets, with participation from firms such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. Recent technical upgrades like Firedancer and Alpenglow have been deployed to improve transaction speed and finality, while a staking program bug allowed an attacker to claim 25.5 SOL, underscoring the importance of ongoing security measures. Substantial inflows into new spot ETFs have also highlighted growing institutional engagement.

Bearish momentum persists despite oversold signals over the week

Weekly technicals remain weak for SOL, as price action is stranded under all major weekly moving averages, with the MA-20 acting as the nearest resistance. Momentum indicators on the W1 chart reflect strong bearishness: the MACD is firmly negative, the ADX signals clear selling pressure, and oscillators like the RSI (34.92) and CCI (–166.64) confirm oversold conditions, with the Stochastic RSI remaining neutral. Both the Bull/Bear Power (–6.06) and the Awesome Oscillator are negative, confirming persistent dominance from sellers. Weekly volatility stood at 15.38%, and despite last week's rebound, technical signals suggest overall weakness.

Consolidation likely next week as rebound probability remains low

Looking ahead, SOL is expected to fluctuate in a $65.00 – $79.00 corridor over the next 7 days. With none of the four main weekly indicators showing a buy signal, the probability of a meaningful upward move is below 20%, and further decline is more likely. If SOL manages to break above $79.00, a recovery toward dynamic resistance may develop, but the baseline scenario calls for consolidation near current levels. Persistent pressure below $65.00 would likely open the way for retesting the yearly low region.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana posted a notable 10.25% rebound this week, yet remains locked below all key moving averages on the weekly chart. Despite positive developments like Moody’s blockchain integration and continued institutional inflows, technical signals are still decisively negative. Momentum remains weak, with the MACD, ADX, and oscillators confirming strong bearish dominance, and no major indicator issuing a buy signal. Kharitonov believes the price is likely to fluctuate within the $65.00 – $79.00 range in the coming week, with any sustained break below support increasing risks of fresh yearly lows. He sees little reason for optimism until SOL reclaims the MA-20 at $82.89. "As long as SOL struggles beneath $79.00 and the technical backdrop stays bearish, I remain defensive and expect consolidation or further downside."

Previously it was reported that Solana faced sustained bearish pressure due to institutional outflows and declining network activity. The latest rebound occurs against a backdrop of ongoing technical weakness and persistent selling signals, suggesting traders should monitor for consolidation around current levels with elevated downside risk if support fails.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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