Solana resistance test at $77.93: Technical outlook

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Solana trades flat at $77.53 today

Highlights

Morgan Stanley filed final SEC paperwork for Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs, signaling potential institutional access to staking rewards.
Solana spot ETFs recorded $5.83 million in net inflows, the strongest daily institutional demand since early July, highlighting sustained interest.
SOL/USD trades below key averages amid technical weakness; predicted 2–3 day price range is $75.61 to $78.76 with 61% odds of further decline.

Institutional flows rise as ETF filings and staking rewards reshape access

Morgan Stanley has filed final paperwork with the SEC for Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs on NYSE Arca, a regulatory step that may facilitate broader access for institutional investors to direct staking rewards, according to Cryptobriefing. Supporting this context, Solana spot ETFs saw $5.83 million in net inflows on Tuesday, the strongest single-day institutional uptake since July 6, as reported by Cryptonews, suggesting ongoing appetite for regulated Solana vehicles. Grayscale also submitted a new Form 8-K for its Solana Staking ETF, proposing quarterly distribution of staking rewards to shareholders, as noted by Cryptbull, further illustrating evolving product structures in the market. In addition, 67% of Solana block production was concentrated in Europe on Wednesday, based on Glassnode data shared by Tronweekly, providing insight on validator activity.

Downside momentum builds as Solana tests resistance and oscillators signal weakness

SOL/USD is situated below the MA-20 at $77.87, MA-50 at $78, and MA-200 at $89.33. The Ichimoku Kijun at $77.93 presents immediate resistance. On the momentum front, MACD and ADX are neutral, while both RSI and CCI indicate selling pressure. Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, highlighting short-term downside exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power points to seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator does not confirm a clear directional trend.

Downside risk persists as consolidation range remains dominant

For the next 2–3 trading days, typical volatility is expected to keep the price within a $75.61 to $78.76 corridor. There is a 39% probability of an upward breakout, while a downward move is more likely at 61%. The baseline outlook is for SOL to consolidate within this range, with a close above $77.93 providing a potential trigger for a bullish move; a drop below $75.61 would shift the risk toward accelerated declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees current Solana price action as a consolidation shaped by strong macro and institutional developments. He believes Morgan Stanley’s ETF filing and continued fund inflows illustrate rising confidence among major market players. The analyst expects that while technical resistance remains overhead, structural demand will provide a foundation for potential recovery if volatility subsides. Karapetjanc summarizes: "Solid institutional steps and evolving ETF structures keep me constructive — if SOL stabilizes above $77.93, short-term upside becomes more plausible."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana’s expanding ecosystem and institutional interest were building a foundation for potential upward momentum, though price action remained constrained by broader market pressures. The latest surge in ETF filings and institutional inflows adds a new dimension to this outlook, making the forthcoming battle over the $77.93 resistance level a key pivot for traders watching for a reversal or further downside extension.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.