Solana price support test: Key levels to watch

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Solana slides 4.15% to $97.19 today

Highlights

Solana activated the Transaction V1 upgrade on mainnet, expanding the maximum transaction size to 4,096 bytes.
The update increases support for complex decentralized applications, including zero-knowledge proofs and advanced DeFi protocols.
SOL trades under key short- and medium-term moving averages with momentum indicators negative and price seen consolidating in a $94.16 to $99.42 range.

Transaction format upgrade expands capabilities but fails to lift sentiment

On September 15, 2026, Solana activated its Transaction V1 format on the mainnet, increasing the maximum transaction size from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes, according to Cointelegraph. This upgrade enables support for more complex and data-intensive decentralized applications, including zero-knowledge proofs, larger multisignature arrangements, and advanced DeFi protocols. While the development broadens the platform’s technical capabilities, it was not accompanied by a positive price response and comes amid prevailing downward momentum.

Multiple sell signals emerge as negative momentum deepens near support

On the hourly chart, SOL is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50, indicating sustained intraday and short-term weakness. The MA-200 on the daily timeframe remains intact beneath current price levels, preserving longer-term structure. The immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at $98.77, while support stands near $94.16. Among the indicators, MACD signals a strong sell and ADX is on sell, confirming negative momentum. RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI have all entered oversold territory, highlighting persistent downside pressure. Bull/Bear Power shows clear control by sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator offers no clear directional bias.

High probability of range trading amid bearish short-term outlook

Over the short term, SOL is expected to consolidate in a range between $94.16 and $99.42. Scenario analysis gives a 76% probability to further downward movement, with only a 24% chance of a rebound. The baseline forecast anticipates price action remaining confined within this band unless a breakout above the $98.77 resistance triggers a bullish response. Should support at $94.16 fail, accelerated declines are likely to follow.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights that Solana’s Transaction V1 upgrade marks a clear step forward in technical capacity and application scope. Despite prevailing price weakness, he sees the fundamental expansion as a key positive for longer-term sentiment. The analyst believes short-term price pressure is most likely to continue unless a breakout above $98.77 sparks a shift in momentum. "I view this network upgrade as an important building block for future adoption, even if the immediate market response remains subdued."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was under continued short-term selling pressure despite ongoing institutional accumulation and network upgrades. With current technical indicators signaling oversold conditions and downside momentum, traders should closely monitor the $94.16 support level, as a failure to hold could trigger further declines.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.