Solana price prediction: Seller pressure raises risk of further declines

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Solana drops 3.43% to $108.56 today

Highlights

DeFi Development increased its Solana holdings to about 2.59 million SOL, absorbing supply and supporting price stability.
Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is live on testnet and devnet, targeting improved transaction finality but not yet on mainnet.
SOL/USD trades at $108.56 with short-term upside momentum, but technical signals point to a likely range of $105.14 to $111.98 and further downside risk.

Institutional buying and testnet upgrade drive Solana supply absorption

DeFi Development, a Nasdaq-listed entity, increased its Solana holdings to approximately 2.59 million SOL by acquiring an additional 22,070 SOL during the past week, reflecting ongoing institutional interest in the asset. This large-scale accumulation helps absorb circulating supply and may contribute to short-term price stability. Additionally, the Alpenglow network upgrade became available on Solana’s testnet and devnet on October 12, 2026, targeting significant improvements in transaction finality, but the upgrade has not yet gone live on mainnet, according to Coinedition.

Bearish momentum intensifies despite firm long-term technical support

SOL/USD is currently above the MA-20, just below the MA-50, and remains supported by the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at $107.4 acts as immediate support. MACD indicates strong downside momentum, supported by a firm reading in the ADX. RSI stands at 49.23 (Sell), while Stochastic RSI is overbought, flagging possible near-term exhaustion. CCI is neutral, with Bull/Bear Power showing intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not currently confirm a trend shift.

Extended downside risk as Solana faces broad consolidation range

Over the next 2–3 days, SOL is forecast to consolidate within a range of $105.14 to $111.98, reflecting typical volatility given recent conditions. Probabilities suggest a 29% chance of a move upward and a 71% likelihood of further declines in the short term. The baseline expectation is for the price to stay inside this corridor, with a breakout above $111.98 indicating renewed bullish interest and a breach below $105.14 triggering a deeper bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, observes that institutional accumulation by DeFi Development underpins short-term demand for Solana, while technical signals highlight downside momentum and fragile intermediate structure. He notes that although testnet upgrades signal ongoing development, mainnet progress is not yet evident and immediate price upside remains limited. The analyst sees likely consolidation between $105.14 and $111.98, with bearish probabilities in the near term. "Until Solana reclaims $111.98, I remain defensive and view any rallies as suspect," Kharitonov says.

Earlier, analysts noted that leveraged liquidations in both crypto and semiconductor-linked assets highlighted the vulnerability of highly correlated, risk-on trades amid broader market sell-offs. The current technical setup for Solana suggests traders should monitor the $105.14 support level closely, as a confirmed breakdown could trigger accelerated downside beyond the projected range.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.