Will Avalanche remain above $9.81 support as bears intensify short-term pressure?

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Avalanche slides 7.93% to $10.23 today

Highlights

Binance futures open interest for AVAX rose 11.57% in 24 hours during a period of high market activity.
Expanded derivatives positioning occurred without any new project-specific developments, amid pronounced selling pressure on AVAX.
AVAX trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum; next two to three days expected range is $9.81 to $10.65 with further downside likely unless support holds.

Leveraged bets drive volatility amid lack of new Avalanche catalysts

Binance futures open interest for AVAX jumped by 11.57% in a 24-hour period, indicating that traders significantly increased their derivative positions during a period of elevated market activity, according to Blockchain. Expanded open interest at a time of heightened volatility can magnify price swings by raising both speculative risk and exposure to rapid liquidations. This surge in positioning occurred absent any new, project-specific developments from Avalanche, setting the backdrop for recent price action under pronounced selling pressure.

Bearish bias intensifies as short-term resistance and momentum indicators align

On the hourly chart, AVAX/USD is trading below both the MA-20 at $10.42 and the MA-50 at $10.66, showing a short-term bearish tilt, while remaining above the MA-200 at $8.14, which serves as the primary longer-term support. The immediate technical resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $10.46. Meanwhile, MACD generates a strong sell indication and ADX points to increasing bearish momentum. The RSI is at 44.05, leaning mildly negative, but both Stochastic RSI and CCI are neutral, suggesting neither oversold nor overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power confirms current downside dominance by sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, so it does not add further confirmation to the prevailing bias.

Limited rebound prospects as consolidation and downside risk dominate

For the next two to three trading days, AVAX/USD is anticipated to trade within a band of $9.81 to $10.65, in line with typical volatility for this period. The likelihood of a move higher is low, while the probability of a further decline is elevated; an upward reversal appears unlikely in the short run. The most probable scenario is range consolidation, but a clear breakout above $10.46 resistance would open the door to a bullish shift, whereas a drop below $9.81 support could trigger additional selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Avalanche (AVAX) is showing technical weakness with pronounced selling and increased derivatives activity. He sees the elevated Binance futures open interest as amplifying both risk and volatility, with no fundamental news to support a reversal. The analyst observes little evidence of buyer strength as AVAX remains capped by short-term resistance. "Until AVAX breaks above $10.46, I expect the bearish bias to persist and would refrain from taking new long positions at current levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that a supply-chain security breach at a major crypto wallet provider prompted renewed scrutiny across the digital asset sector regarding the safety of custodial practices. In light of Avalanche's current technical setup and increased derivatives activity, traders should closely monitor the $10.46 resistance level for signs of a potential shift in short-term market momentum.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.