Prediction markets price Democratic control of U.S. Congress in midterm vote

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Democrats expected to win Congress

Highlights

Polymarket and Kalshi users assign Democrats a 75-76% chance for the Senate and 94% for the House in the midterms as of Tuesday afternoon.
Political contracts account for only 1% of Kalshi and Polymarket trading in October, sharply down from over 60% during the 2024 presidential race.
A Democratic Congress could put Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown in charge of crypto-related committees, signaling tougher scrutiny and less focus on new crypto legislation.

Market pricing and trading backdrop

As reported by The Block, citing Bloomberg, interest in election-related contracts has cooled sharply since the 2024 presidential race even as bettors now increasingly price in a Democratic sweep in the midterms.

By early Tuesday afternoon, users on Polymarket give Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of taking the House. On Kalshi, the market shows similar odds, with Democrats at 75% for the Senate and 94% for the House.

All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Prediction markets gained prominence during the 2024 presidential election as an alternative gauge of sentiment, and platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have since built significant revenue and multibillion-dollar valuations.

Bloomberg says politics made up just 1% of trading volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket in October, down from more than 60% during the 2024 election period.

Implications for crypto oversight in Washington

A Democratic shift in Congress could have direct consequences for the digital asset industry because party control affects leadership of key committees and the legislative agenda.

For crypto companies and investors, that could mean Democrats including Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown lead panels overseeing the sector. Experts cited by The Block last month say that scenario would likely bring greater scrutiny of issues including President Donald Trump's crypto wealth through his family's World Liberty Financial, while placing less emphasis on advancing crypto legislation.

In specific races with crypto relevance, Kalshi bettors give former Sen. Brown a 71% chance of defeating Jon Husted in Ohio. In New Jersey, Sen. Cory Booker, who has been involved in crypto legislation discussions, holds a 98% chance on Kalshi.

Our earlier article on Republicans’ midterm advertising surge explained how the GOP ramped up spending across Senate and House races as polling tightened, even in states previously seen as safe. We also noted how high fuel costs and broader affordability pressures were shaping voter sentiment and forcing campaign strategists to redirect resources toward the most competitive contests.

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