Mixed momentum for XRP — price prediction focuses on ETF narrative

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XRP Rises 0.09% Today, Hits $2.81

Highlights

XRP trades at $2.8144, remaining below the MA-20 and MA-50 but above the MA-200, indicating short-term selling and long-term support.
Polymarket assigns an 87% probability to an XRP spot ETF approval after the SEC's August 2025 non-security ruling, spurring whale accumulation and institutional interest.
XRP will likely consolidate between $2.8679 and $2.9888 next week, with a 75% probability of an upward move and crucial resistance at $3.0244.

Institutional inflows rise as ETF optimism follows regulatory clarity

The likelihood of an XRP spot ETF approval has jumped to 87% on Polymarket, following the SEC’s August 2025 decision that designated XRP as a non-security, leading to significant whale accumulation and expectations for institutional inflows. Regulatory clarity from this ruling has driven institutional interest, with Ripple’s network continuing to enhance remittance efficiency despite competitive pressures from stablecoins and CBDCs. Technical signals remain mixed, but ongoing ETF developments are fostering positive momentum for XRP.

Bearish technical signals strengthen amid range-bound price action

Momentum signals for XRP are divided, with the daily MACD showing strong selling pressure despite a high ADX that confirms a prevailing trend. Daily RSI and CCI point to bearish conditions, while Stoch RSI sits neutral and CCI levels verge on oversold. The price is currently caught below the Ichimoku Kijun resistance at $3.0244 and is consolidating in the middle of today’s low-volatility intraday range between $2.8128 and $2.8286. Sellers dominate in the short term, as reflected by the BBP, with the Awesome Oscillator aligning with the prevailing downward momentum.

Upside probability grows as key resistance approaches in low-volatility range

Looking ahead, XRP is expected to remain in a range between $2.8679 and $2.9888 over the next week, with an average price near $2.9284. The odds favor a 75% probability of an upward move, making further downside less likely given support above $2.8128 and resistance at $3.0244. If bulls overcome resistance at $3.0244, a push toward $2.9888 or higher could unfold, but if bearish pressure persists, a break below $2.8128 would expose the asset to further declines toward long-term support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees XRP trading within a defined range, constrained by clear technical resistance at $3.0244 and supported above $2.8128. He believes recent regulatory clarity and ETF speculation have improved sentiment, but current signals urge patience as sellers remain in control in the short term. 'Until XRP decisively reclaims and holds above $3.0244, I remain cautious and focused on capital preservation,' Karapetjanc states.

Previously it was noted that XRP remained constrained by strong technical resistance despite renewed whale accumulation. The article also reported on the rapid growth of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin within the ecosystem.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.