Weekly forecast: ETH price struggles below $4,500 but staking activity surges
Last week, ETH lost nearly 4%, lagging behind Bitcoin. However, both assets received positive momentum linked to the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, renewed institutional interest, and deepening exchange supply shortages.
According to TradingView data, Ethereum currently trades within parallel channels, holding key support at $4,350. A drop below this level could push ETH toward $3,750, while holding it may allow for another test of highs above $5,000.
ETH’s current price of $4,490 is about 10% below its recent all-time high reached in August. Nevertheless, Coinbase analysts consider this level an attractive entry point for positioning.
4-hour chart of the ETH price over the course of a month. Source: Trading View
This outlook is supported by declining ETH balances on centralized exchanges and continued whale accumulation. ETFs and companies also play a growing role, reducing available liquidity.
A mixed factor is the recent surge in the exit queue for ETH staking, which hit a two-year peak at 2.6M ETH and over 43 days. Vitalik Buterin explained this as a technical safeguard for network security, stressing that unstaking should not be compared to bank withdrawals — a stance widely supported by the crypto community.
Currently, 35.6M ETH are locked in staking (nearly 30% of total supply), far exceeding withdrawal requests. However, the fact that the staking entry queue (442.5K ETH) is much smaller than withdrawals suggests profit-taking by holders, delaying a retest of ATH.
Will the week stay calm?
The main risks for ETH next week include negative macroeconomic data such as U.S. jobs reports and household spending figures. A sharp rise in futures open interest could also trigger volatility in both directions.
Still, the most likely neutral scenario points to sideways trading between $4,400–$4,600. This is supported by RSI at a neutral 47.23 and restrained positive MACD momentum (1.54).
If negative news drives a breakdown, ETH may fall toward $4,200–$4,300. Conversely, breaking above $4,500 could open the way to $4,600–$4,700 and possibly higher.
As we wrote, ETH news live: exchange supply drops amid strong ETF absorption, supporting long-term outlook
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