Bitcoin fair value estimated at $165,000, says JPMorgan
Analysts at banking giant JPMorgan, with assets of over $4 trillion, believe Bitcoin is currently undervalued by about 38–40%, suggesting its fair price should reach $165,000 by year-end.
The key drivers behind the revised bullish outlook are gold’s strong performance and the narrowing volatility gap between the two assets.
In its latest analytical report, JPMorgan emphasized Bitcoin’s growing role in what it calls the “debasement trade” — where investors allocate capital to gold and Bitcoin as hedges against fiat currency devaluation and rising government debt.
The bank highlighted a significant change in the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold. The BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now consumes roughly 1.85 times more risk capital than gold — the lowest level in recent years.
Analysts compared Bitcoin’s current $2.4 trillion market capitalization to the estimated $6 trillion invested in gold (including bars, coins, and ETFs). If Bitcoin were to reach gold’s adjusted parity by volatility, its price could rise nearly 40%, hitting the $165,000 target.
Capital flows may shift
This assessment marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when JPMorgan analysts claimed Bitcoin was overvalued by about $36,000 using the same gold comparison model. Now, the model shows the opposite picture.
However, JPMorgan notes that its approach is largely mechanistic and based on volatility-adjusted comparisons with gold, meaning market conditions may deviate from this linear model.
Factors such as gold price dynamics, central bank policy shifts, and evolving regulatory frameworks for digital assets could influence the trajectory. Still, if ETF inflows persist and institutional adoption expands, Bitcoin could capture a larger share of capital traditionally held in gold.
As we wrote, Bitcoin ETFs kick off `Uptober` with second-best week ever
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