Celestia price prediction: More downside likely as technicals remain bearish

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Celestia slides 7.01% today to $1.087

Highlights

Celestia (TIA) trades at $1.087, well below its MA-20 ($1.3545), MA-50 ($1.5469), and MA-200 ($2.016), confirming sustained multi-timeframe selling pressure.
The October 5, 2025 unlock released 9.62 million TIA tokens, increasing supply amid rising volatility and contributing to recent price instability.
Bearish momentum persists with a 7.01% drop to near intraday lows and less than 20% probability of a sustained rise above $1.1180 in the next week.

Token unlock and supply surge drive price instability amid volatility

A key market driver for TIA was the token unlock on October 5, 2025, when 9.62 million TIA tokens were released as part of a larger unlock wave that impacted several projects. This increase in supply, accompanied by ongoing market volatility, has contributed to recent price fluctuations and challenges in maintaining price stability. Celestia has also demonstrated resilience following a significant rebound from sharp declines, reflecting volatile conditions in recent weeks.

Bearish momentum prevails as strong trend faces mixed short-term signals

Momentum readings show a bearish tilt, with the D1 MACD signaling sell and ADX indicating strong trend strength. Oscillators highlight growing downside momentum: RSI reads 41 and CCI is in oversold territory, while BBP shows sellers dominate intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator supports the overall bearish trend. The price has fallen $0.082 or 7.01% today, with only a small gap between yesterday's close and today's open. The current price is near the low end of today's range, showing high intraday volatility and ongoing sell pressure after the open. Despite strong trend strength (ADX), there is divergence among short-term oscillators and momentum indicators, as Stoch RSI provides a buy signal while others lean bearish.

Rangebound trading likely as downside risks outweigh bullish momentum

Looking ahead, TIA is forecast to trade within $1.0080 to $1.1180 over the next five trading days. Probability analysis shows a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, making further downside more likely. The baseline scenario expects price action to remain rangebound in a sideways corridor. A bullish case would require a strong push above immediate resistance, leading to a test of the $1.158–$1.200 area. In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below $1.0080 support could open the way for further declines, especially if momentum and weekly indicators remain negative.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Celestia (TIA) navigating a challenging environment shaped by increased token supply and persistent seller dominance, as confirmed by strong negative momentum and underperformance against key moving averages. Karapetjanc believes that although volatility and the recent token unlock pressure have put downside risk at the forefront, the asset’s resilience after sharp drops hints at potential for future stabilization if broader market sentiment improves. He remains moderately optimistic, forecasting that TIA will likely remain rangebound in the near term, with clear resistance and support levels to watch. "A decisive break above resistance could spark renewed bullish momentum, but for now, patience is required as we await confirmation of a stronger trend," he concludes.

Previously it was noted that protocol upgrades and token unlocks contributed to downside pressure as broader sentiment turned bearish. The article highlighted that momentum indicators on daily charts show a broadly bearish tone amid strong supply risk and volatile market conditions.

Source of Data: TIA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.