Token buyback wave — Hyperliquid slips 7.55%

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Hyperliquid drops 7.55% today

Highlights

Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades at $35.21, below both MA-20 ($44.15) and MA-50 ($47.39), showing persistent bearish momentum with MA-200 support at $36.69.
Hyperliquid has repurchased $645 million in tokens in 2025 and attracted institutional attention with a proposed 2x leveraged ETF filing by 21Shares.
Momentum indicators, including an RSI of 27.2 and a sharp 7.55% price drop, reinforce prevailing downside pressure with high volatility and a low probability of near-term price recovery.

Token buybacks and ETF filing fuel institutional confidence shift

Hyperliquid is at the center of an aggressive token buyback wave in 2025, having spent about $645 million on repurchasing tokens to strengthen value and scarcity. This move shows a more mature governance and tokenomics approach, reinforcing confidence in the project. There is also growing institutional attention as 21Shares has filed for a 2x leveraged ETF based on HYPE, which may further impact market dynamics and liquidity.

Downside momentum persists amid oversold signals and volatile session

The nearest dynamic resistance is now the Ichimoku Kijun level at $37.64, while local support is just above $35.00. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The daily MACD continues to signal selling pressure, but the ADX highlights a strong trend still in place. Oscillators on D1 show oversold territory with the RSI at 27.2 and CCI weakening to -102.57, further confirmed by Stoch RSI and BBP favoring seller dominance. There was a modest gap down from yesterday’s $38.08 close to today’s $36.79 open. The current price sits near today’s low of $35.16 in a high-volatility session after a sharp 7.55% drop. Intraday tone remains weak, with sustained pressure following the open. Most indicators confirm downside momentum, though the strong ADX suggests the trend itself is resilient.

Low upside odds as range-bound trade favors renewed downside risk

Looking ahead, the expected trading corridor for HYPE in the next five days is between $38.33 and $38.84. Based on technical readings, the probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), while a decrease appears much more likely. The baseline scenario calls for consolidation below resistance, with prices fluctuating sideways in the range. The bullish case requires a decisive break above $37.64, opening a recovery toward $38.80 or higher. The bearish scenario would see prices slipping below $35.00, putting long-term support from the MA-200 at risk and deepening the downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Hyperliquid (HYPE) trading in a persistently bearish technical structure, with prices below key moving averages and most indicators reflecting seller dominance. Despite positive sentiment from buybacks and rising institutional interest, he notes that technical resistance at $37.64 and downside pressure suggest limited upside in the short term. Kharitonov maintains a cautious tactical stance, expecting continued consolidation or further declines unless a decisive breakout occurs. "As long as HYPE remains below the $37.64 resistance and momentum stays negative, I consider the downside risk elevated and would avoid aggressive long positions."

Last time we reported that Hyperliquid faced heightened volatility as the broader crypto market endured global liquidation pressures and China-U.S. tariff risks. It was also noted that sellers continue to dominate on an intraday basis according to strong volatility and selling pressure in the latest session.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.