Tron: strong DeFi expansion led to stable price near $0.31 amid consolidation

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Tron slips 0.39% today at $0.3122

Highlights

Tron (TRX) trades at $0.3122 below MA-20 ($0.3296) and MA-50 ($0.3354), signaling short- and medium-term selling pressure despite long-term MA-200 support at $0.2988.
TRON's Q3 2025 saw daily active users average 2.6 million and total value locked rise from $4.9 billion to $6 billion, leading global retail USDT transfers under $1,000 with a 65% market share.
Momentum signals diverge as MACD remains bearish but RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI indicate oversold conditions, with a 75% probability of a price increase and expected range between $0.3100–$0.3209.

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TRON's network reinforced its global settlement infrastructure in Q3 2025, achieving record user growth and high transaction success rates, as reported by independent analysts. Daily active users averaged 2.6 million with a 65% share of global retail USDT transfers under $1,000, alongside total value locked rising from $4.9 billion to $6 billion, as the blockchain expanded its dominance in decentralized finance and retail payments. The network maintained its leadership in stablecoin settlements through ongoing upgrades and ecosystem growth, with institutional maturity highlighted by recent developments.

Mixed momentum builds oversold risk as bearish signals counter bounce odds

Momentum signals are mixed. The MACD is bearish but the ADX is very strong, signaling robust trend strength. RSI and CCI indicate oversold conditions, and the Stoch RSI confirms this on most intraday frames, suggesting sellers may be losing steam. BBP remains negative, showing sellers still dominate intraday price action, while the daily move (+0.39%) shows no gap at the open and TRX is currently near today’s upper range. Volatility is moderate, and intraday tone is one of strength toward highs. Despite the recovery, short-term oscillators and momentum diverge — bearish trend signals but oversold readings hint at potential for a bounce.

Bullish odds rise as consolidation dominates near support and resistance

Over the next week, the expected price range is $0.3100 to $0.3209. The calculated probability of a price increase is 75%, while the likelihood of a decline is less. The baseline scenario assumes price consolidates between support and resistance. In the bullish scenario, TRX could extend gains above $0.3237, opening potential toward the weekly high ($0.3209) or above, while a bearish outcome would see a break below $0.3100, with downside limited by the MA-200 near $0.2988.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees TRX trading under short-term moving averages, signaling caution despite robust network growth and strong decentralization fundamentals. He notes that momentum indicators are mixed, with oversold readings hinting at limited downside but no clear bullish catalyst, and that price action remains capped by technical resistance. Kharitonov emphasizes the need for price confirmation before adopting an optimistic stance and remains watchful of the $0.3100–$0.3209 range for direction. "Until TRX reclaims resistance at $0.3237 or breaks below key support at $0.3100, I am staying neutral and waiting for a stronger setup."

Previously it was reported that sellers dominate intraday as BBP points lower amid weak momentum and sustained bearish signals. Market sentiment shifted due to recent liquidity compliance actions and the introduction of new staking opportunities.

Source of Data: TRX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.