HYPE news live: rebounds 7.69% — strong buybacks, high probability of further upside forecast

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Hyperliquid surges 7.69% today

Highlights

Hyperliquid (HYPE) completed a $780 million buyback, repurchasing 34.41 million tokens for a 65% gain, ranking as the largest crypto token buyback per Tokenomist.
Price action remains pressured below MA-20 ($41.12) and MA-50 ($44.44), with current support at MA-200 ($39.30) and Ichimoku Kijun ($36.96), as whale accumulation increases at support amid market volatility.
Despite today's 7.69% gain and high volatility, momentum indicators like MACD, ADX, RSI, and CCI reflect weak or bearish signals, indicating a divergence between price action and underlying momentum.

Token buybacks surge as protocol revenue and whale activity grow

Hyperliquid completed a $780 million buyback program, repurchasing 34.41 million HYPE tokens for a 65% gain, marking it as the leading crypto token buyback according to Tokenomist. The protocol consistently generates substantial daily revenue from its perpetuals decentralized exchange, allocating up to 99% of that revenue toward further buybacks and its Assistance Fund, which holds 3.44% of the total supply. Additional factors include ongoing exchange listings, token burns, infrastructure upgrades, and rising whale accumulation near support levels driven by recent market volatility.

Mixed technical signals as intraday gains contrast with weak momentum

Momentum on the daily timeframe is subdued, as the MACD trends neutral and the ADX indicates weak trend strength. RSI and CCI both lean bearish, with Stoch RSI and BBP confirming oversold conditions, and sellers dominating intraday momentum despite today’s impressive gain of 7.69%. There was a modest gap up at the open (from $37.87 to $39.01), placing the current price near the high of today’s range ($37.47–$41), amid high volatility and intraday strength toward the highs. Oscillators and momentum indicators provide mixed signals, signaling a divergence between short-term bullish price action and underlying weak momentum.

High upside probability as sideways consolidation remains baseline

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $16.30 to $37.11. The probability of a price increase is very high (more than 80%), while the probability of a decrease is much less likely. The baseline scenario envisions consolidation within a sideways corridor, while a bullish scenario would require a breakout above $44.44 for sustained upward momentum. A bearish outcome could develop if support at the MA-200 ($39.30) or the Ichimoku Kijun ($36.96) fails, bringing deeper retracement risks into focus.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Hyperliquid’s strong fundamentals — including record-setting buybacks and robust revenue allocation — as signaling long-term confidence, even as technical indicators show near-term weakness. He believes persistent institutional engagement, token burns, and rising whale accumulation strengthen the project’s underlying value, setting the stage for a constructive recovery. While consolidation within the current range is likely, Karapetjanc maintains a positive bias given the high probability of price appreciation and the protocol’s proactive fundamentals. In his view, sustained upside would require a clean breakout above $44.44, but any retest of the MA-200 at $39.30 could be an inviting entry for bullish participants. "With Hyperliquid’s fundamentals remaining highly supportive and market sentiment improving, I see this pullback as an opportunity for patient buyers to accumulate before the next leg higher."

Previously, it was noted that whale accumulation intensified as bullish sentiment countered technical hurdles. Last time we reported that seller dominance persisted intraday amid mixed momentum and oversold signals on the daily timeframe.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.