Bitcoin price prediction: BTC corrects after Senate bill rally met 20-day EMA resistance

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Sholanke Dele

11.11.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC corrects after Senate bill rally met 20-day EMA resistance — Bitcoin retraced 2.4%

Bitcoin price struggled to sustain early gains on Tuesday after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to reopen the government, sparking a brief rally that quickly lost momentum near a critical resistance level. The cryptocurrency surged by $2,000 in the Asian session to reach $107,500, its highest level in over 7 days. However, sellers resurfaced as price action met resistance at the 20-day EMA, halting the advance and pushing Bitcoin lower into the European session.

- Bitcoin retraced 2.4% after failing to clear $108,000 resistance during Tuesday’s session.

- On-chain data shows over 370,000 BTC sold since July, weakening bullish sentiment.

- Traders watch $104,800 EMA support to confirm whether BTC rebound remains intact.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped to $104,900, marking a 2.4% decline from the intraday high and trading 1% lower on the day. The failed attempt to break above $108,000 highlights persistent selling pressure from long-term holders, who continue to take profits after the late October rebound. On-chain data shows that long-term holders have offloaded more than 370,000 BTC since July, while Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded outflows of about $932 million last week. These factors have weakened short-term momentum and contributed to the recent correction from the resistance area.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Oct - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s retracement is now testing the 4-hour 50 EMA near $104,800, a key short-term level that could determine whether the pullback returns higher or extends deeper. The 50 EMA previously served as a springboard during last week’s rebound, and traders will watch for renewed accumulation at this level to gauge whether buyers are prepared to defend the recent uptrend.

Bitcoin rebound prospects hinge on break above 20-day EMA and $108,500

Despite today’s weakness, the broader structure still favors short-term bullish sentiment. Over the past two days, Bitcoin has posted consecutive sessions of higher closes, supported by rising trading volume, an improving long-to-short ratio, and growing open interest in derivatives markets. These indicators reflect sustained participation on the buy side, suggesting that the retracement may be corrective rather than trend-reversing.

On a month-to-date basis, Bitcoin has pared much of its early November losses. The token’s decline to $98,900 last week had widened its monthly drop to 8.7%, but the rebound toward $107,500 reduced that loss to just 0.81% earlier today. The current retracement has widened the monthly deficit again to around 3%, but a successful defense of the $104,800 area could set the stage for a renewed push higher.

For upside continuation, Bitcoin must decisively break above the 20-day EMA and overcome resistance between $108,000 and $108,500. A close above this zone would confirm the reactivation of bullish momentum and could shift November’s balance from loss to gain. Failure to do so may prolong consolidation as traders assess the next directional bias following the Senate-driven volatility.

We discussed how Bitcoin broke above $105,000, narrowing November losses and showing renewed bullish interest. Rising volume and open interest confirmed broader trader participation behind the breakout.

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