Token unlock triggers caution — Hyperliquid gains 7.44%

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Hyperliquid rises 7.44% today on rebound

Highlights

Hyperliquid will unlock approximately $314 million in HYPE tokens on November 29, increasing circulating supply by 2.66% with 9.92–10 million new tokens.
This unlock follows a recent team unstaking of over 2.6 million HYPE tokens valued at $85.8 million, marking the transition to a two-year linear vesting schedule.
Hyperliquid has partnered with Paxos and Aptos to launch the USDG0 omnichain stablecoin and continues to report high monthly trading volumes.

Token unlock and team actions drive focus amid strategic partnerships

Hyperliquid is preparing to unlock approximately $314 million worth of HYPE tokens on November 29, initiating the first major release since its November 2024 Token Generation Event and adding about 9.92–10 million tokens, or 2.66% of the supply, into circulation. The unlock follows the team's recent unstaking of over 2.6 million tokens valued at $85.8 million, marking the start of a cliff unlock with a shift to linear vesting over the next two years. In addition, Hyperliquid has become a launch partner with Paxos and Aptos for the new USDG0 omnichain stablecoin and continues to report strong monthly trading volumes.

Bearish momentum persists as oscillators lag intraday recovery

Momentum indicators remain mostly negative. MACD and ADX both confirm a bearish tilt with modest trend strength, while the RSI (35.60) and CCI (–169.06) indicate mild oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI and BBP are neutral-to-oversold, with the latter highlighting ongoing seller dominance intraday. The price gapped higher at the open (from $30.53 to $33.72), and is now drifting toward the lower half of today’s range ($31.82 to $34.49), with moderate intraday volatility and a tone of mild pressure after the open. Oscillators show a clear divergence from daily upward price action, as momentum lags the recent bounce.

Further downside favored as bullish signals remain absent

The expected range for the next 5 days is $29.50–$36.10, reflecting a typical volatility band for this instrument and keeping the price trajectory realistic. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a meaningful upward reversal, with further losses more likely in the short term given the absence of bullish signals on the weekly RSI, ADX, and MA-50 indicators. The baseline scenario points to continued sideways trading below resistance, while a bullish outcome would require a breakout above $36.10. A bearish continuation could trigger a move toward the $29.50 support zone.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in Hyperliquid, with prices struggling below all key moving averages and no technical signs of recovery. He notes that the looming $314 million token unlock, combined with the recent team unstaking, builds additional pressure and does little to inspire market confidence. Kharitonov believes momentum remains weak and the path of least resistance points lower, especially with sellers still in control and few bullish signals in sight. "Base case remains sideways to bearish as long as HYPE stays under $36.10 — any bounce is suspect until proven otherwise."

Previously it was noted that seller dominance continued intraday amid mixed momentum and oversold signals. Last time we reported that persistent selling as volatility spikes characterized activity and maintained a downside bias.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.