US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som stays under pressure as pair breaks below all major moving averages

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Us dollar vs uzbek som slides 0.59%

Highlights

USD/UZS trades below key moving averages, confirming sustained downside pressure across short-, medium- and long-term trends.
Bearish momentum dominates as MACD and Awesome Oscillator confirm sellers are in control, with all major momentum indicators oversold.
USD/UZS is expected to fluctuate between UZS11,768 and UZS11,886 in the next five days, with a 78% probability of further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes persistent technical weakness in USD/UZS, with the pair trading below all major moving averages and momentum signaling a clear downtrend. He observes that neither news nor fundamental drivers are cushioning downside risks, leaving the current path vulnerable. Kharitonov points to heavy selling pressure and an oversold setup, which together threaten further declines. He warns that the lack of bullish catalysts and a bearish crossover of key moving averages constitute significant risks for buyers. "Until we see confirmed reversal signals or fresh drivers, any rally attempts in USD/UZS are likely to falter fast," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views current volatility as a potential setup for opportunity rather than concern. He highlights that even amid broad technical weakness, the emergence of oversold signals and a defined support band could attract tactical buyers looking for a reversal. Karapetjanc remains confident that market structure offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio should momentum shift, despite the absence of significant news events. "Bullish structure remains possible if USD/UZS bounces off support, and the market offers setups for agile traders," Karapetjanc asserts.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees today’s setup as a classic sentiment-driven oversold dip. He finds that momentum remains weak, but oversold indicators signal a short-term bounce could develop. Turakhiya points to the current narrow range — with resistance at UZS11,859 and support at UZS11,818 — as a key backdrop for traders seeking quick reversals. "Short-term players should watch for potential snapback bets as exhaustion builds, but discipline is key in this range," says Turakhiya.

Downside momentum persists as support nears and oversold signals cluster

USD/UZS is trading below all major moving averages, with the price at UZS11,827 sitting under the 20-day (UZS11,952), 50-day (UZS11,996), and 200-day (UZS12,089) levels, indicating ongoing downside pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term trends. The bearish MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment confirms a negative longer-term bias, while resistance stands at the near-term ceiling of UZS11,859 and support is seen at the near-term floor of UZS11,818. Momentum indicators point clearly lower, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signaling sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) showing a neutral trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) both flag oversold conditions, while Stochastic RSI reads at 0, also oversold. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is negative, indicating sellers continue to dominate the pair’s intraday momentum with an oversold condition present. The Awesome Oscillator joins the MACD in confirming ongoing bearish momentum. On the session, the pair trades down by UZS69.81 or 0.59% after opening with a downside gap of about UZS9.2 (gap of -0.08%). The current price is near the daily low, intraday volatility stands at 0.62%, and the tone remains pressured following the open. Momentum indicators confirm the soft intraday action.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was experiencing persistent downside momentum amid sustained bearish technical signals. The latest session reinforces this view with new lows and entrenched oversold readings, highlighting the UZS11,818 support as a critical level to monitor for potential further declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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