AUD/JPY tests ¥110.68 support: Technical outlook

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Australian Dollar vs Yen slides 0.96% today

Highlights

Japan's Ministry of Finance executed record interventions totaling ¥15.4 trillion from July 30 to August 26, 2026 to support the yen.
A joint intervention with the United States in August 2026 was funded through large US Treasury sales, reducing Japan’s FX reserves by $79.6 billion.
AUD/JPY trades below key moving averages and faces sustained bearish pressure, with the immediate range seen at ¥110.68 to ¥112.47.

Record interventions and unwind of carry trades heighten yen volatility

Japan's Ministry of Finance conducted record yen-buying interventions totaling ¥15.4 trillion between July 30 and August 26, 2026, resulting in a substantial $79.6 billion decline in foreign exchange reserves, according to UA.NEWS. In August 2026, a joint intervention with the United States was executed and funded through sizeable US Treasury sales, amplifying the support for the yen, as reported by Cryptobriefing. These aggressive interventions, together with the rapid unwinding of yen carry trades highlighted by Marketpulse, produced significant volatility in the Australian Dollar vs Yen and contributed to the current pressure on the pair.

Multi-timeframe resistance and negative momentum undermine recovery chances

AUD/JPY is trading below its 20-, 50-, and 200-period moving averages, reflecting a confluence of resistance near the short-, medium-, and long-term trend lines. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ¥112.29, marking the closest technical resistance. Momentum indicators — MACD and ADX — continue to show seller dominance, while the RSI reading at 47.24 points to a Sell bias. Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, and Bull/Bear Power reveals moderate buyer interest, yet overall intraday momentum remains negative.

Limited upside as volatility bands signal more downside risk

Looking ahead, the typical volatility band for the next 2–3 sessions is expected between ¥110.68 and ¥112.47. The probability of a break to the upside appears very low, with a high likelihood of renewed downside pressure dominating. The base case scenario calls for a consolidative, range-bound move within these boundaries, while a sustained push above ¥112.29 would open the door to further gains and a close below ¥110.68 may trigger additional selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued downside risks for AUD/JPY after large-scale interventions from Japan and complex technical resistance. He believes the aggressive joint actions have only amplified volatility, not reversed the prevailing bearish momentum. The analyst remains cautious as the pair stays below all key moving averages and faces seller dominance in momentum indicators. "Unless ¥112.29 is reclaimed, I expect further pressure on AUD/JPY and would stay defensive at these levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was under persistent selling pressure due to renewed expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and weak Australian data. The current article strengthens this view by highlighting the impact of substantial yen-buying interventions and the unwinding of carry trades, making sustained downside risk the prevailing scenario and positioning ¥110.68 as a critical level to watch for potential further declines.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.