Australian Dollar vs Yen edges lower after trading below key moving averages reinforces downside bias

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Australian dollar slides 0.67% today

Highlights

AUD/JPY trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, reflecting persistent downward pressure across timeframes.
Momentum indicators show oversold and seller-controlled intraday conditions, though MACD presents a bullish divergence.
The expected five-day range is ¥110.19 to ¥113.16, with a 60% probability of further downside unless support at ¥110.19 holds.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, observes persistent downside momentum in AUD/JPY, with the pair breaking below key moving averages and technicals confirming a bearish short-term tone. He notes absence of supportive news, reinforcing the overall lack of positive drivers. Kharitonov sees oversold signals stacking up, yet stresses sellers maintain firm control and downside risks remain. The analyst points out any bullish divergence from MACD is overshadowed by broader technical weakness. "Market participants should act defensively, as short-term rebounds are likely to be limited and downside remains the path of least resistance here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the intact bullish structure over the longer term with the 50-day average still above the 200-day. He views prevailing volatility as providing new opportunities for proactive traders. Karapetjanc emphasizes that, despite current selling, any reversal above ¥111.71 could set up further growth within the established range. He suggests optimism for those positioning ahead of a potential recovery. "I see a market preparing setups for further gains, as structural support remains unbroken and bullish momentum is poised to return."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains skeptical about near-term AUD/JPY prospects given the lack of news catalysts and dominance of sellers. He underlines that oversold technical readings do not guarantee a rebound as sentiment stays weak. Dele cautions that a break below ¥110.19 would worsen losses. "Momentum is with the bears right now, and I would advise staying cautious until the structure suggests a sustainable turn."

Conflicting momentum signals amid persistent technical selling pressure

AUD/JPY is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at ¥113.62, ¥113.1, and ¥112.15 respectively, indicating sustained pressure from sellers in the short, medium, and long term. The nearest resistance is at ¥111.71, with support at ¥110.19. The MA-50 remains aligned above the MA-200, confirming a still-bullish longer-term structure. Momentum signals are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests strong upside, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.5, Stochastic RSI at 0, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -110.88, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -0.79 all indicate oversold conditions, showing sellers dominate the intraday tone. The pair has fallen to ¥111.67, down ¥0.75 or 0.67%, after opening with a downside gap of about 0.1%, and now sits near the low of the day. Intraday volatility stands at 0.34%. This points to continuing downside pressure following the open and is reinforced by the oversold readings, even as MACD provides a divergence with its strong buy signal.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent downside risk for AUD/JPY was driven by ongoing selling pressure and the impact of significant yen-buying interventions. The current analysis strengthens this view with fresh evidence of sustained downside momentum, highlighting ¥110.19 as the critical support level to monitor for potential further declines.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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