USD/KRW holds near ₩1,374 resistance amid four-session KOSPI decline

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US Dollar vs won gains 0.5% today

Highlights

The South Korean won weakened, tracking a four-session decline in the KOSPI and higher US 10-year yields and global oil prices.
Earlier support for the won from National Pension Service hedging and corporate ADR flows has faded as global rates and risk trends shifted.
USD/KRW shows short-term bullish momentum, with a projected 2 to 3 day trading range of ₩1,360 to ₩1,374.

Investor risk aversion rises as Kospi slide and yields pressure won

According to Ua, the South Korean won weakened on Wednesday, tracking a fourth consecutive decline in the KOSPI index amid rising US 10-year Treasury yields and elevated global oil prices. These conditions weighed on risk sentiment, driving demand for the US Dollar as investors shifted assets. In the background, Fxstreet reports that the won’s broader rally since late June has been supported by increased FX hedging by Korea’s National Pension Service and repatriation related to corporate ADR flows, but recent moves have been shaped by shifts in global risk and rate dynamics.

Bullish momentum persists as mixed indicators temper conviction

On the technical front, USD/KRW trades above its MA-20 at ₩1,363 and MA-50 at ₩1,355 on the hourly chart, while remaining below the MA-200 at ₩1,469 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,363 is identified as immediate support. Momentum indicators are positive, with MACD and ADX both signaling a buy bias, and RSI reads 57.77. Meanwhile, Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are in oversold territory, indicating potential for dip-buying, while CCI and Awesome Oscillator reflect neutral momentum.

Rangebound trade likely as breakout risk tilts to the upside

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, USD/KRW is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between ₩1,360 and ₩1,374. The most likely scenario is continued sideways consolidation in this range, with a higher probability of an upward breakout than a decline. A sustained move above ₩1,374 would signal further upside, while a drop below immediate support at ₩1,363 could challenge the short-term outlook.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, believes USD/KRW is currently driven by shifting global risk sentiment as equity weakness and rising US yields weigh on the won. He notes that technicals point to short-term support near ₩1,363, but momentum remains mixed. Consolidation is favored, with the outlook neutral unless a decisive move happens. "Until we see a sustained break above ₩1,374 or below ₩1,363, I remain cautious and prefer to wait on the sidelines."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW’s rebound was taking place within an overarching context of medium- and long-term bearish momentum. The latest price action, with the pair consolidating above short-term averages and momentum turning positive, suggests that traders should closely monitor the potential for an upward breakout beyond ₩1,374 in the coming days.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.