Reserve Bank of India intervention: Can AUD/INR hold support at ₹66.3361?

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Highlights

The rupee temporarily depreciated past 96 per US dollar before recovering with Reserve Bank of India intervention and foreign inflows tied to equity index rebalancing.
Stable global oil prices reduced external pressure on the rupee and contributed to moderating forex market volatility.
AUD/INR trades below major moving averages with intraday indicators showing strong downside probability and an expected range of ₹66.3361 to ₹67.0027 over 2 to 3 days.

Currency recovers as central bank intervention and oil prices stabilize

The Indian rupee experienced a brief depreciation beyond the 96 per US dollar mark before recovering due to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, according to Rediff. Additional support came from stable global oil prices, which reduced external pressure, and from foreign inflows linked to equity index rebalancing. Together, these factors contributed to stabilizing the INR and moderating volatility in the broader forex market.

Bearish signals persist as resistance and oversold indicators collide

On the hourly chart, AUD/INR remains beneath the MA-20 at ₹66.8929 and the MA-50 at ₹67.083, while also trading below the daily MA-200 near ₹66.7973. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at ₹66.9272, with intraday price action struggling to breach this overhead cap. Momentum indicators present a predominantly bearish configuration: MACD signals Sell, while ADX is Neutral, indicating weak trend conviction. RSI stands at 33, and both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, suggesting short-term exhaustion for sellers. Bull/Bear Power points to seller dominance on an intraday basis, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not reinforce the downtrend.

Narrow trading range likely as breakout risk remains minimal

Within the next 2 to 3 trading days, AUD/INR is expected to fluctuate between ₹66.3361 and ₹67.0027, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario foresees price action remaining inside this range with a very low probability (less than 20%) of an upward breakout. A bullish move would require the pair to close decisively above immediate resistance at ₹66.9272, while a bearish scenario could develop if support near ₹66.3361 is breached, opening further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees ongoing pressure on AUD/INR, with sellers holding control below key moving averages. He notes that RBI’s intervention and supportive macro flows have stabilized the rupee, but technical momentum still points lower. A neutral tone dominates, with no strong trend conviction and oversold signals limiting downside for now. "Until AUD/INR breaks above ₹66.9272 or falls below ₹66.3361, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for a clear direction."

Earlier, analysts noted that continued selling pressure kept AUD/INR in a broadly bearish technical setup. The latest session confirms this negative bias, with momentum favoring sellers and the critical area near ₹66.3361 emerging as a key level to monitor for potential further downside.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.