Women-facing occupations seen bearing greater AI disruption risk

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AI disruption risk for women

Highlights

AI threatens routine clerical and administrative roles, where women dominate, with the International Labour Organization estimating nearly 10% of women in high-income countries are in high-exposure jobs.
Automation in the 1940s-60s, such as AT&T's telephone switch rollout, eliminated 75,000 operator jobs, initially displacing many women but ultimately allowing younger female entrants to shift into equally good roles.
Historical technological changes like office software cut sector jobs by 1% but raised wages for college-educated women by 3%, indicating education and movement to managerial positions may mitigate AI disruption.

Historical patterns in technology-driven job change

As reported by CNBC, economists and labor researchers say the spread of AI is likely to weigh more heavily on women because it targets routine clerical and administrative tasks, fields where women still account for a large share of employment.

Ariane Hegewisch, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, says AI is focused on routine tasks, numbers and pattern-finding, putting many office support roles at risk. The International Labour Organization concluded in March that nearly one in 10 women in high-income countries works in occupations facing the highest exposure to AI.

The history of telephone operators offers one of the clearest precedents. In the 1940s, nearly 95% of America’s telephone operators were women, holding relatively well-paid jobs that required months of training and the ability to manage hundreds of calls an hour with speed and precision.

That changed when AT&T introduced automated telephone switches, one of the largest automation investments in history. In the decades after the system spread, an estimated 75,000 operator jobs disappeared, and economists James Feigenbaum of Boston University and Daniel P. Gross of Duke University found that many incumbent workers lost jobs and careers as the technology rolled out nationwide.

At the same time, their research suggests the long-term outcome was more mixed than the initial shock implied. They found that younger women entering the labor market later often moved into other fields and secured jobs of similar quality, indicating that technological displacement can be severe for current workers while still opening different opportunities for the next generation.

Why the broader labor impact may differ

Other technological shifts also changed women’s role in the economy, sometimes by expanding paid work rather than narrowing it. Economists including University of Pennsylvania’s Jeremy Greenwood describe washing machines and other household appliances as "engines of liberation" because they sharply reduced the time women spent on unpaid housework.

From 1950 to 1980, as social norms evolved, the number of employed women in the U.S. rose by more than 25 million and female labor force participation increased to 52% from 34%. As more work once done at home moved into the paid economy, women also found growing opportunities in retail, restaurants, leisure, hospitality and some professional services.

The arrival of the personal computer produced another important shift. Women formed the backbone of office administration before IBM launched the PC in 1981 and Microsoft Word followed two years later, making some intermediary office functions obsolete.

Yet studies cited in the analysis show women were already more likely than men to be using computers at work at the start of the PC era, helping many adapt as employers changed processes. A 2022 paper by Marcus Dillender and Eliza Forsythe found that software adoption for office and administrative tasks led to a 1% decline in employment in the sector but a 3% increase in wages for college graduates, suggesting education and movement into managerial roles may provide some protection as AI spreads.

In our earlier article on the KPMG U.S. CEO survey about AI agents, we covered how large companies are reporting early efficiency and growth gains but generally do not yet see the technology as truly transformational. The survey also pointed to continued hiring plans, expanded retraining efforts, and sustained investment in AI infrastructure as executives prepare for deeper integration of AI into day-to-day workflows.

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