Life after Orban: What is next for Hungary’s crypto market

The end of the Orban era

Parliamentary elections were held in Hungary on April 12, resulting in a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party led by Peter Magyar. With about 99% of votes counted, the party secured 138 seats — more than two-thirds of parliament and a constitutional majority.

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Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, which had been in power for 16 years, won just 55 seats, losing by a wide margin. Orban conceded defeat on election night and congratulated the opposition.

Voter turnout exceeded 74%, one of the highest levels in the country’s modern history. With such figures, the outcome became clear during the vote count: on Polymarket, the probability of Peter Magyar’s victory surged to 98%, while Orban’s chances dropped to just 2%.

Two different paths

Magyar’s victory signals more than a change in leadership. In recent years, Orban pursued a policy of distancing Hungary from the EU, frequently blocking Brussels’ decisions and building closer ties with Russia. This approach shaped both foreign policy and domestic economic decisions.

Magyar, by contrast, advocates returning Hungary to the European mainstream, Bloomberg reports. He has already pledged to restore relations with the EU and NATO and to unlock billions of euros in frozen funds withheld over concerns about corruption and the rule of law.

The differences are also visible in economic policy. Under Orban, the state actively intervened in key sectors, while the forint exchange rate and inflation were often used as political tools. The new course implies a more transparent financial system and compliance with EU requirements, including deficit and inflation control.

A separate issue is the regulation of emerging sectors, including the crypto industry. It is here that the differences between the two approaches may become most visible.

How Orban tightened crypto rules

Under Viktor Orban, Hungary introduced one of the strictest crypto regulatory regimes in Europe. Crypto companies were required to undergo a special “validation” process — an additional certification procedure that went beyond the EU-wide MiCA framework.

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Non-compliance carried not only administrative penalties but also potential criminal liability. This created significant risks for businesses and effectively discouraged some international players from operating in the Hungarian market.

In 2025, as regulations tightened, several major platforms began limiting services for Hungarian users. Notably, Revolut and crypto exchange Bitstamp suspended services in the country after new rules criminalizing certain crypto transactions were introduced.

These policies also drew scrutiny from the European Union. The European Commission launched proceedings against Hungary, arguing that the national rules violated MiCA and created unnecessary barriers within the single market.

What may change under Magyar

With Peter Magyar coming to power, the Hungarian market is expected to see regulatory easing. The new government is likely to remove additional requirements for crypto companies and align local rules with MiCA without national “add-ons.”

This could eliminate key barriers for businesses. Companies that previously limited operations in Hungary may return, while new players could enter the market without facing separate local requirements or criminal risks.

The changes matter beyond Hungary. If the country abandons Orban’s strict approach, it could signal to other EU states not to impose rules beyond MiCA and to stick to unified standards.

While final decisions are still pending, the election outcome is already reshaping market expectations. Participants are pricing in a scenario where Hungary could shift from one of the most tightly regulated markets to a more open jurisdiction for crypto businesses.

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